ASEAN Members Balance Relations with BRICS as Global Dynamics Shift

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ASEAN Navigates BRICS: A Strategic Shift in Southeast Asian Diplomacy

Amidst a multipolar and unpredictable global landscape, Southeast Asian nations are recalibrating their strategic alignments. This shift is exemplified by Indonesia’s recent admission to BRICS in January 2025 and Malaysia, Thailand, and Vietnam’s new roles as partner countries in October 2024. These moves reflect a pragmatic approach to diversifying diplomatic and economic partnerships.

BRICS as a Pathway to Economic Growth

BRICS countries offer Southeast Asian nations alternative platforms for economic growth, trade diversification, and access to development financing. For Indonesia, BRICS membership strengthens its connections with major economies like China and India, while also providing access to the New Development Bank. President Prabowo Subianto’s quote, “a thousand friends are too few; one enemy is too many,” encapsulates Indonesia’s commitment to fostering diverse partnerships.

Malaysia sees BRICS as a platform to bolster its renewable energy and technology sectors. Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim has emphasized the need to adapt to global changes, viewing the rise of China as a ‘glimmer of hope’ in balancing global power dynamics.

Thailand sees BRICS membership as an opportunity for foreign direct investment and new market access. With BRICS countries accounting for 22.8% of international trade, this alignment presents significant advantages. Vietnam, aiming to balance its relationships between Western nations and emerging economies, intends to remain a BRICS partner country, advantages known as the ‘sweet spot’ strategy.

The Risk to ASEAN Centrality

While these developments offer economic benefits, they pose challenges to ASEAN’s principle of centrality and internal unity. Concerns have intensified about the potential complications these closer ties with BRICS could bring to ASEAN’s broader geopolitical stance. The alignment with BRICS may draw some members closer to China and Russia, affecting ASEAN’s strategic neutrality.

Non-BRICS member states risk marginalization and developmental disadvantages as BRICS offers exclusive financing and trade benefits. Indonesia’s potential facilitation of Russian oil imports could disadvantage non-BRICS Southeast Asian nations, highlighting the skepticism regarding ASEAN’s effectiveness in promoting intraregional trade.

Geopolitical Implications Beyond the Region

ASEAN’s engagement with BRICS extends beyond regional economic interests. It carries geopolitical implications that affect global dynamics. The United States and its allies may view this alignment as a shift toward China and Russia. Meanwhile, Beijing’s push for BRICS expansion aligns with its vision of a new world order that challenges Western dominance.

The current political landscape, including President Donald Trump’s return and his renewed tariff policies, complicates these relationships further. Trump’s policies, such as the 10% tariff on China and restrictive immigration policies, strain US relations with other key nations, impacting alliances like the Quad in the Indo-Pacific.

Economic and Financial Challenges

As economic and geopolitical uncertainties escalate, ASEAN nations may diversify partnerships, making BRICS’ emphasis on equitable development and access to the New Development Bank an increasingly attractive alternative. However, BRICS membership could also complicate ASEAN’s trade commitments, as BRICS nations explore alternative financial and trade systems divergent from the RCEP and CPTPP frameworks.

Russia’s proposed BRICS cross-border payment system and grain trading exchange, using blockchain and national currencies, aim to reduce reliance on the US dollar and introduce parallel trade mechanisms, potentially necessitating policy adjustments by ASEAN.

Future Directions and Cooperation

Existing ASEAN platforms, such as the ASEAN Summit and ASEAN Ministerial Meetings, can serve as venues to align BRICS initiatives with ASEAN’s objectives. Inviting the BRICS chair country to these discussions could enhance cooperation and coordination.

Overall, Southeast Asia’s engagement with BRICS marks a strategic shift in regional diplomacy and economics, presenting both opportunities and challenges. By diversifying its partnerships, ASEAN can hedge risks in an uncertain geopolitical landscape while addressing the need for balanced foreign policies.

We invite our readers to share their thoughts on this evolving geopolitical landscape. Your insights and comments can contribute to a richer discussion on the future of Southeast Asia and its global partnerships.