Army Pacific Build-Up Aims to Avoid War Through Preparation

By Kris Osborn, President, Center for Military Modernization

Potential Invasion Scenarios: China’s Possible Moves Against Taiwan

A sudden and overwhelming missile attack targeting Taiwan’s defenses could initiate hostilities. A massive amphibious assault aimed at surrounding and capturing the island is another plausible scenario. Alternatively, China might impose a blockade of the South China Sea, or conduct a swift fifth-generation air strike against US warships in the Philippine Sea.

The Role of Ballistic Missiles and Electronic Warfare

A large-scale ballistic missile attack to disable Taiwanese air defenses and cripple military infrastructure could be the initial move. Accompanying these strikes, China might jam US and allied GPS and communication signals, rendering defenses ineffective.

Army Pacific’s Dual Purpose: Avoiding War by Preparing for It

General Flynn underscores that Army Pacific’s strategic build-up is aimed at preventing war. However, this involves rigorous training, preparation, and refinement of combat strategies to ensure readiness if conflict becomes unavoidable.

Hypersonic Weapons and Naval Force Strategies

China could leverage hypersonic weapons to deter US warships from approaching the region. Given China’s extensive and technologically advanced naval capabilities, a substantial amphibious assault on Taiwan remains a significant threat.

The Complexity of Extricating an Occupying Chinese Force

China may aim to seize Taiwan rapidly to achieve a “fait accompli,” making it challenging for the US, Japan, and South Korea to intervene. The feasibility of mounting a liberation force to expel Chinese forces from Taiwan raises critical questions about the potential scale and cost of such an operation.