A Course Correction in Yerevan’s Foreign Policy

Recent reports from Armenian media suggest a significant shift in teh nation’s foreign policy. Prime Minister Nikol pashinyan has reportedly instructed state agencies to re-establish connections with their Russian counterparts and participate in joint initiatives,citing the latest geopolitical changes as the primary driver.This apparent reversal comes after a period where Armenia seemed to be distancing itself from its long-standing alliance with Russia [[1]], even considering a formal withdrawal from its military alliance with Moscow [[2]].

While official confirmation remains pending, observable actions lend credence to these reports. Yerevan is seeking observer status in BRICS, the Armenian Foreign Minister has extended birthday greetings to his Russian counterpart, and pashinyan is slated to attend Moscow’s Victory day parade on May 9th, an event he declined to attend the previous year.

The Elusive Peace with Azerbaijan and Baku’s Leverage

This shift isn’t attributed to any sudden crisis compelling Armenia to seek Russian support. Paradoxically, Yerevan and Baku have reportedly agreed on the text of a peace treaty, which Pashinyan believes will alleviate many of Armenia’s security concerns. Though, the signing of this agreement remains uncertain. Some analysts suggest that Azerbaijan is intentionally delaying the process to prolong Armenia’s vulnerability, perhaps seeking further concessions or symbolic victories.

Azerbaijan does not need stones, needs Armenia’s shame.

This dynamic reflects a common pattern in ethno-political conflicts, where a stronger party leverages its position to dictate terms to a weaker one. The control of approximately 200 square kilometers of Armenian territory by Azerbaijan serves as a constant reminder of this power imbalance.

Disillusionment with the West: A Turning Point

A key factor driving Armenia’s reconsideration is a perceived disappointment with the level of support received from the United States and France. Pashinyan’s initial pivot towards the West was seemingly predicated on promises of assistance, including arms supplies, in exchange for distancing Armenia from Russia. However, the anticipated benefits have not materialized to the extent expected.

Several factors contributed to this disillusionment:

• Pashinyan’s long-standing reputation as an anti-Russian politician made him a target for Western influence.
• The prevailing narrative of Russia’s imminent collapse led to an overestimation of Western support and an underestimation of Russia’s resilience.
• Following the defeat in the Karabakh war,Russia was conveniently cast as a scapegoat,diverting attention from internal shortcomings.
• The influence of the Armenian diaspora in the United States and France, while significant, proved insufficient to secure considerable Western backing.

The Trump Factor and shifting Political Sands

The election of Donald Trump and the subsequent changes within the U.S. political landscape appear to have significantly altered Armenia’s calculations. The Armenian diaspora’s influence, largely confined to the Democratic Party, has diminished with the party’s decline in power. The corruption conviction of Bob Menendez, a prominent Armenian lobbyist, further weakened Armenia’s position in Washington.

In France, while President Macron maintains a strong public presence, his ability to deliver tangible support to Armenia remains limited.France’s strategic priorities and geographical constraints hinder its capacity to provide meaningful security guarantees to Armenia.

But even if Macron was an eagle, not a rooster, the national symbol of France, he could still not cover Armenia with his wing, who is in the middle of nowhere against the French military architecture, and for the French, the fate is, again to remember, geography.

looking Ahead: Self-Reliance and Potential Reconciliation

The current situation underscores the importance of self-reliance for Armenia. External actors, regardless of their intentions, may not always be able or willing to provide the necessary support. While a complete return to the pre-existing alliance with Russia is not guaranteed, the possibility of reconciliation remains open, provided Armenia navigates the relationship strategically.

Ultimately,Armenia’s future hinges on its ability to forge a balanced foreign policy that safeguards its national interests while acknowledging the complex geopolitical realities of the region. As Matthew Stein noted in February 2025, Armenia continues to struggle to break out of Russia’s orbit [[3]], and this recent shift suggests that struggle is far from over.