Update Oct. 12, 2025: Disney’s Tron: Ares short-circuited at the box officeopening to a disappointing $33.5 million over the Oct. 10–12 weekend. The long-gestating sci-fi sequel topped the charts but fell well below early projections in the $40–50 million range, marking another low-voltage frame for the fall movie season. Including $27 million from international markets, the film’s global debut stands at $60.5 million.
Paramount’s Roofman finished in second with $8 million, a modest start that’s roughly in line with expectations for the $19 million crime dramedy starring Channing Tatum and Kirsten Dunst. Warner Bros.’ One Battle After Another held steady in third with $6.7 million, lifting its domestic total to $54.5 million and $138 million worldwide. Universal’s Gabby’s Dollhouse: The Movie followed with $2.4 million, while Sony’s Soul on Fire rounded out the top five with $3 million. Some outlets initially reported the inspirational drama in sixth place, but updated numbers confirmed it narrowly edged out The Conjuring: The Last Rites ($2.935 million).
The Conjuring: The Last Rites nevertheless achieved a major international milestone, surpassing $300 million overseas for a worldwide total of $473 million. Meanwhile, Roadside Attractions’ Kiss of the Spider Woman struggled to find its audience, opening at No. 12 with just $918,000 from 1,330 theaters despite positive festival buzz for Jennifer Lopez’s performance.
Original story published Oct. 10, 2025:It’s been nearly 15 years since moviegoers last entered the Grid, but Disney is betting big that audiences are ready to plug back in. The studio’s long-awaited Tron: Ares opens this weekend as the first major studio blockbuster of the fall, targeting a domestic debut between $40 million and $45 million and another $40 million–$45 million overseas for a global launch near $90 million. That would put it roughly on par with 2010’s Tron: Legacywhich bowed to $44 million and ended with $400 million worldwide.
Directed by Joachim Rønning (Pirates of the Caribbean), the $180 million sci-fi sequel stars Jared Leto, Jeff Bridges, Greta Leeand Evan Peters. Early reviews have been mixed (53 percent on Rotten Tomatoes), but audience reaction has been far stronger at 86 percent. Premium formats like Imax and 3D should give it an edge with fans, and advance ticket sales have already topped $7 million. Disney’s extensive marketing push and Nine Inch Nails’ buzzy score could lift it to the higher end of projections.
Paramount counters with Roofman from Miramax, a charming dramedy starring Channing Tatum and Kirsten Dunst that’s looking at an $8 million to $10 million debut from 3,340 theaters. Directed by Derek Cianfrancethe Blue Valentine filmmaker who cowrote the script with Kirt gunnthe film tells the true story of Jeffrey Manchestera North Carolina thief who hid in a Toys “R” Us after a series of robberies. After a warmly received premiere at the Toronto International Film Festival, Roofman sits at 84 percent on Rotten Tomatoes and could play strongly with adult audiences.
One Battle After Another continues its awards-season run in third place with an expected $6 million, bringing its domestic total near $55 million. Sony’s Soul on Firestarring William H. Macyis projected to surprise with a $3 million–$5 million debut, while Universal’s Gabby’s Dollhouse: The Movie follows close behind with roughly $2 million–$3 million in its third weekend. A24’s The Smashing Machine is also in the mix with an estimated $2 million–$3 million frame, setting up a tight race to round out the top five.
In limited expansion, Kiss of the Spider Woman rolls out to 1,300 theaters via Roadside Attractions and Lionsgate. The Bill Condon–directed musical, starring Jennifer Lopez and Diego Lunais targeting a $1.5 million–$3 million debut despite strong Sundance buzz and a 76 percent fresh rating on Rotten Tomatoes. Other limited releases that received early Oscar buzz — but aren’t expected to make box-office waves — include Amazon MGM’s After the Hunt and A24’s If I Had Legs I’d Kick You.
New releases
Tron: Ares
Director: Joachim Rønning
Distributor: Walt Disney Studios
A highly sophisticated Program, Ares, is sent from the digital world into the real world on a dangerous mission. The sci-fi adventure has a running time of one hour, 59 minutes, and is rated PG-13. Tron: Ares is certified “rotten” with a 54 percent score per the aggregated critic reviews at Rotten Tomatoes; “mixed or average” reviews compiled by Metacritic resulted in an overall score of 50 percent.
Roofman
Director: Derek Cianfrance
Distributor: Miramax/Paramount Pictures
A charismatic criminal, while on the run from the police, hides in a hidden space of a toy store. There, he adopts a new identity and becomes involved with an employee, beginning a relationship as unlikely as it is risky. The romantic crime caper has a running time of two hours, six minutes, and is rated R. Roofman is certified “fresh” with a 84 percent score per the aggregated critic reviews at Rotten Tomatoes; “generally favorable” reviews compiled by Metacritic resulted in an overall score of 65 percent.
Soul on Fire
Director: Sean McNamara
Distributor: Affirm Films
After suffering an accident, a young boy ends up relying on his family, his faith, and his community in his fight for survival. The biographical drama has a running time of one hour, 51 minutes, and is rated PG. Soul on Fire does not have a Rotten Tomatoes or Metacritic score as of this writing, but reviews trickling in have been generally favorable.
Kiss of the Spider Woman
Director: Bill Condon
Distributor: Lionsgate/Roadside Attractions
Valentín, a political prisoner, shares a cell with Molina, convicted for public indecency. An unlikely bond forms as Molina recounts a Hollywood musical plot starring Ingrid Luna. The musical has a running time of two hours, eight minutes, and is rated R. Kiss of the Spider Woman is certified “fresh” with a 76 percent score per the aggregated critic reviews at Rotten Tomatoes; “generally favorable” reviews compiled by Metacritic resulted in an overall score of 66 percent.
After the Hunt
Director: Luca Guadagnino
Distributor: Amazon MGM Studios
A college professor finds herself at a personal and professional crossroads when a star pupil levels an accusation against one of her colleagues and a dark secret from her own past threatens to come to light. The drama, starring Julia Roberts, Andrew Garfieldand Available Ayohas a running time of two hours, 19 minutes, and is rated R. After the Hunt is certified “rotten” with a 44 percent score per the aggregated critic reviews at Rotten Tomatoes; “mixed or average” reviews compiled by Metacritic resulted in an overall score of 52 percent.
If I Had Legs I’d Kick You
Director: Mary Bronstein
Distributor: A24
With her life crashing down around her, Linda attempts to navigate her child’s mysterious illness, her absent husband, a missing person, and an increasingly hostile relationship with her therapist. The Oscar contender starring Rose Byrne and Conan O’Brienhas a running time of one hour, 53 minutes, and is rated R. If I Had Legs I’d Kick You is certified “fresh” with a 93 percent score per the aggregated critic reviews at Rotten Tomatoes; “universal acclaim” reviews compiled by Metacritic resulted in an overall score of 82 percent.
Here are Gold Derby’s predicted box-office rankings for the top five over the Oct. 10-12 weekend:
1. Tron: Ares
2. Roofman
3. One Battle After Another
4. Soul on Fire
5. Gabby’s Dollhouse: The Movie
Do you agree or disagree with those rankings? Make your predictions right now — it’s fun and easy!
