The National Hurricane Center of the United States indicates a near 100% probability of a tropical cyclone forming in the Pacific within the next 48 hours. Currently, it is classified as a tropical depression, specifically “one-e,” situated south of the coast of Guerrero, Mexico, according to the National Water Commission (Conagua).

If it develops into a tropical storm, it will be named Alvin, according to the World Meteorological Organization’s official naming list for 2025. This would mark the first named storm in the Pacific this year.

The National Hurricanes Center describes the depression as an “elongated area of ​​low pressure located several hundred kilometers south of the southern coast” that is producing rains and thunderstorms, but “it lacks a well -defined circulation”.

The American climatic authority anticipates that the depression will strengthen into a tropical storm this Thursday.

The depression is currently moving north-northwest at approximately 15 km/h. This trajectory is expected to continue until Thursday night, followed by a turn north this Friday and Saturday.

The cyclone poses a potential threat to Mexico.

Conagua has stated that the tropical depression “will maintain conditions for intense specific rains in areas of Michoacán, Guerrero and Puebla, strong rains in Querétaro, Hidalgo, Tlaxcala, State of Mexico and Morelos, and also heavy rains in Jalisco, Colima, Guanajuato and Mexico City.”

Earlier in may, Fabián Vázquez Romaña, general coordinator of the National Meteorological Service, indicated expectations of eight to nine tropical storms, four to five category 1 or 2 hurricanes, and four to six major hurricanes (category 3, 4, or 5) in the region.

The hurricane season’s commencement, which is predicted to be above average in the Atlantic, coincides with a period when whether and disaster agencies in the United States are facing meaningful strain, potentially increasing the vulnerability of tens of millions of people.