AI Economic “Bubble”: Warning and Reality
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There is a growing warnings of exaggerated hopes for the yet -time hypothetical “artificial intelligence economy”. Some analysts believe that the “bubble” could crack earlier than forecast, as the current increase in investment, measured in tens and hundreds of billions of dollars, cannot continue in an infinitely limited world.
According to the analytical note recently received by Deutsche Bank customers, the current AI boom helps the US economy avoid recession, but it cannot last forever. George Saraveros, Head of the Global Currency Research Unit of Deutsche Bank, said the US would be close to recession this year, unless there were huge costs that large technology companies invest in new data centers for AI.
“Ai cars literally save the US economy right now,” Saraveros said, but stressed that such a growth rate can only be increased with permanent and ambitious expenditure. Nvidia, the main supplier of powerful AI accelerator for data centers, significantly supports the growth that the US economy has shown in recent months.
An exaggerated investment and an indefinite future
“The bad news is that in order for the technological cycle to continue to promote GDP growth, the capital investments must remain on a parabolic level. This is extremely unlikely,” Saraveros added. Deutsche Bank emphasizes that a significant proportion of these growth comes from the construction of new objects by people, and the AI industry itself has not yet made a significant contribution to GDP.
It should be noted that the companies do not yet feel a significant financial effect from the introduction of AI. About half of the S&P 500 index fixed market income has secured shares of technology companies, warns the bank. A separate report by Torsten Slek (Apollo Management) agrees with this view, stating that stock investors are currently “excessively exposed to the risks associated with AI”.
AI income deficit and speculative risks
After Bain & Co. Analyst estimates, even with current ambitious expenses, are unlikely to be able to generate sufficient income to finance further growth. By 2030, the expected demand for AI services will require $ 2 trillion in annual income, while globally will lack about $ 800 billion to cover this request.
Nvidia recently invested $ 100 billion in the Open to create an additional 10 GW calculation power for AI, while the Open itself has announced plans to build a full -fledged network of new data centers. Meanwhile, Open’s Executive Director Sam Altman has admitted that AI investors are behaving irrational and some of them will inevitably lose considerable sums of money.
Future forecasts and the real scenario
Will the AI capital be able to continue to grow so insane at high pace with unrealistic income expectations? Baidu CEO Robin Li recently predicted that 99% of the so -called AI company would not survive the break of the “bubble”. Meanwhile, even serious businesses are now spending money and potential productivity growth, trying to turn any process into action that is run by AI.
