“Russia has not secured a permanent advantage that would allow Russian forces to simply continue their unchecked advance as long as the war continues,” he assessed the developments on the front during the ISW winter.
He pointed out that the Ukrainian counterattacks launched in mid-December near Kupjansk enabled Kyiv to maintain control over Kupjansk and nearby villages. He captured at least 183 square kilometers despite Russian efforts to stop successful Ukrainian counterattacks.
February counterattacks
The limited operation near Kupyansk was followed by further counterattacks on the border between the Zaporozhye and Dnipropetrovsk regions, during which the Ukrainians succeeded in liberating several villages between Oleksandrivka and Hulyajpole. ISW confirmed that the liberated area covers an area of about 200 square kilometers in the Hulyajpole, Oleksandrivka and Novopavlivka cadastres.
In other places of the front, for example in the Sumy region, they lost 35 km² of territory. The net territorial gain in February is thus 165 km² at the beginning of the fourth week of February. It is the largest area liberated since the failed summer 2023 offensive.
ISW does not expect counterattacks to develop into a major offensive and will maintain the existing front line. However, they disrupted preparations for the expected Russian offensive in the spring and summer of this year. With the exception of Kupyansk, the Ukrainians failed to capture a strategically important place, but on the border of the Zaporozhye and Dnepropetrovsk regions, they deprived the Russians of a starting point for the summer offensive. In addition, they gained time to build better defensive positions.
Ukraine’s progress can’t be attributed solely to Elon Musk blocking unauthorized users from accessing the Starlink network in early February, although it caused confusion in Russia’s frontline command. They also had to concentrate forces and secure their supplies. In the Kupyansk region, the Ukrainians successfully attacked even at a time when the Russians could use Starlink.
Analysts pointed out that in four years, Russia has not achieved the proposed main goals of the special military operation, as it called the offensive war. It did not even occupy the entire Donetsk and Luhansk regions, the “liberation” of which became a pretext for war. Not only did it not capture Kyiv, but neither Kharkiv nor Zaporizhia. They lost the only captured regional administrative center – Kherson – in 2022.
The regime of President Volodymyr Zelensky failed to be overthrown, and instead of pushing NATO back, the invasion made Sweden and Finland members. Therefore, Russia is now trying to achieve the original goals by pressure at the negotiating table, supported by attacks on Ukrainian infrastructure, in order to break the determination of the population to defend itself.
Anniversary of the outbreak of war in Ukraine
The editorial office of Novinek has prepared a series of articles reflecting the conflict from several perspectives on the four-year anniversary of the start of the Russian invasion of Ukraine:
