Trump’s Trade Tactics and Their Implications for Japan and South Korea
US President Donald Trump has announced new tariffs on Canada, Mexico, and China, and threatened to impose tariffs on Taiwan. While Japan and South Korea have stayed off his radar, this could change at any moment, and both countries should be prepared to offer concessions, even at the expense of national pride.
Overview of Trump’s Actions
The beginning of President Trump’s second term was marked by a flurry of directives and executive orders. He quickly withdrew the United States from the 2015 Paris climate agreement and the World Health Organization. Trump also initiated a sweeping deportation campaign, using tariffs as leverage to pressure Colombia into accepting military planes carrying deported Colombian citizens.
Immigration Policies and Global Withdrawals
The deportation of undocumented immigrants, particularly those with criminal records, has garnered broad public support despite controversy. Other initiatives, including the renewed push for purchasing Greenland and regaining control of the Panama Canal, have been more polarizing. Trump also renamed the Gulf of Mexico the Gulf of America, raising eyebrows both domestically and internationally.
New Tariffs: Targets and Reactions
Trump introduced tariffs consistent with his campaign promises, imposing a 10% tariff on imports from China. He also announced a 25% tariff on goods from Mexico and Canada. Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau responded with a pledge for “forceful but reasonable” retaliation but lacked the capacity to follow through effectively. In early January, Trudeau announced his resignation amid plummeting popularity. Trump’s continued mockery, including jokingly suggesting that Canada become the 51st US state, further undermined Trudeau’s political standing.
Trump also threatened tariffs on Taiwanese semiconductors, prompting emergency talks among Taiwanese policymakers. These actions underscore Trump’s disregard for geopolitical alliances unless they align with his immediate interests.
Japan and South Korea: Potential Targets?
Remarkably, Trump has not mentioned Japan and South Korea in his inaugural address or subsequent policy announcements. Both countries are America’s major allies in East Asia but remain largely untouched by Trump’s aggressive trade tactics for now. This could change soon, given Trump’s long-standing calls for increased defense spending from Japan and South Korea.
Political Turmoil in South Korea
South Korea faces a domestic political crisis following the impeachment and arrest of former President Yoon Suk-yeol. Former Prime Minister Han Duck-soo stepped in as acting president after Yoon’s impeachment but was himself soon impeached, leaving Choi Sang-mok to assume the roles of acting prime minister and president. Amidst this turmoil, Choi’s ability to push back against potential demands from Trump is severely limited.
Japan’s Strategic Approach
The Japanese government is maneuvering carefully, seeking to maintain a close relationship with Trump while considering possible concessions to avoid tariffs. Prime Minister Ishiba Shigeru is meeting with Trump this week, three months after the US election. Ishiba’s five-minute phone call contrasts dramatically with longer conversations between Trump and other world leaders like South Korean and French presidents.
Previously, Abe Shinzo built a strong rapport with Trump, relying on their shared passion for golf and establishing trust in international forums. Ishiba, lacking this personal connection and political clout, faces challenges in negotiating effectively. Despite these obstacles, Japan has shown initiative by sending Foreign Minister Iwaya Takeshi to Trump’s inauguration, emphasizing a commitment to strengthening ties and security cooperation against China’s perceived threats in the Indo-Pacific.
Strategic Concessions: The Way Forward
Japan and South Korea must prepare for potential demands from Trump. Given his history, any verbal denigration should signal readiness for action. Strategic concessions might include increased imports of US shale gas and agricultural products, aligning with efforts demonstrated by China in reducing tensions. These moves could create economic opportunities while maintaining national sovereignty.
Conclusion: A Cautionary Approach
While Japan and South Korea have stayed off Trump’s radar, the possibility remains for their inclusion in future trade policies. They must remain vigilant and ready to offer concessions when necessary to avoid economic repercussions. Balancing national pride with economic survival will be crucial as Trump’s administration progresses.
PS Events: AI Action Summit 2025
Don’t miss our next event, taking place at the AI Action Summit in Paris. Register now, and watch live on February 10 as leading thinkers consider what effective AI governance demands.
Actionable Insights
In summary, Japan and South Korea must be prepared for potential trade battles. They should anticipate and be ready to make strategic concessions when Trump’s attention turns to East Asia. By maintaining a strong diplomatic presence and seeking economic collaboration, they can mitigate the risks while seizing opportunities.
Call to Action
We invite you to share your thoughts on how Japan and South Korea can navigate these challenges. Leave your comments below or subscribe for more insights on international politics and economics. Stay informed and engaged.
