The collapse of the polar vortex has begun, amid sudden stratospheric warming. The latest forecasts show that this phenomenon will bring cold weather and snow to several areas of the United States, Canada and Europe, according to an analysis published on Saturday by Severe Weather Europe.
A strong Polar Vortex traps cold air in the polar regions, creating a mild winter. But when the Polar Vortex is disrupted or collapsed, cold air can escape, unleashing true mid-latitude winter episodes with blizzards and heavy snow.
The latest data on stratospheric warming and the collapse of the Polar Vortex indicate cold and snow in the United States, Canada and also in Europe, creating a significant change in the December pattern, according to the source cited.
In these conditions, the chances of a consistent layer of snow during the holidays increase significantly.
What is the Polar Vortex and how it can influence winters
The Polar Vortex is an extended area of low pressure that acts as a rotating “wall” around the polar regions, virtually trapping the cold polar air inside this region.
A strong (stable) Polar Vortex means a strong polar circulation. This traps colder air in the polar regions, preventing it from escaping. As a result, milder winter conditions are created for most of the United States, Europe, and other mid-latitude areas.
The second pattern is a complete collapse of the Polar Vortex. A disrupted Polar Vortex has much more difficulty retaining cold air, which can now easily escape from the polar regions into the United States and other mid-latitude regions.
The latest analysis indicates the beginning of the disruption of the Polar Vortex
The latest analysis shows that the Polar Vortex is already beginning to deform.
“Usually, it should have a uniform circular shape, but you can see how a high pressure area is pushing it outwards and changing its structure. Temperatures are also rising in the area around the cold core.
Typically, the cold core of the Polar Vortex should cover a large area, centered over the North Pole. But as the entire mass of the Polar Vortex is displaced, temperatures are much higher than normal in the polar regions.”says the analysis of Severe Weather Europe.
In this context, all forecasts point to a significant weakening of the Polar Vortex in the next two weeks.
A stalled pole means a weakened jet stream and low pressure systems from the eastern United States across the North Atlantic and into Europe. This helps unblock cold air from the Arctic, sending it to the United States, Canada, Europe and other mid-latitudes.
Meteorologists they were able to observe how the core of the Polar Vortex rotates counterclockwise, which means a strong northward flow from the Arctic into Canada and the United States. At the same time, it brings a southwesterly flow into the far North Atlantic.
Europe will gradually be affected by the effects of the collapse of the Polar Vortex
This development places the main region of impact in North America for now.
“The temperature forecast for the first week of December indicates a potential strong burst of cold (polar) air across the northern, central and northeastern United States. This fits exactly with the pressure pattern above, with the lower core of the Polar Vortex acting as a ‘pump’ for cold air across the United States.”
We can take this as another positive sign of a good chance of a snowy Christmas.”the quoted source also states.
The presence of the core of the Polar Vortex over North America is not very favorable for snow in Europe, at least in early December. This causes a trend towards higher pressure and gentler flow to the southwest. Therefore, the forecast for Europe for the beginning of December shows a rather warm start to the month.
Meteorologists estimate that from the second week of December, we can witness a significant change in the weather. With a high pressure anomaly further north and a low pressure system over the south, this causes strong negative pressure conditions, allowing a cold easterly air flow over Europe.
We remind you that the director of ANM, Elena Mateescu, stated for Antena 3 CNN, that the beginning of winter in Romania, according to the data at this moment, will be warmer than usual. “This is not surprising, because the statistics of previous years have already shown that winters in general on average in our country are milder.” However, she specified that there will be episodes of genuine winter, with blizzards and a consistent layer of snow.
