The UK Meteorology (Met Office) anticipates that next year, 2026will mark the fourth consecutive year that the global temperature of the Earth’s surface will exceed the 1.4°C compared to pre-industrial levels (1850-1900).
The central forecast indicates an increase in 1,46 °Cslightly lower than the record of 1.55°C recorded in 2024but still among the highest values ever observed.
An increasingly hot planet
The Met Office considers it “likely” that 2026 will be among the four hottest years in historyjust behind 2024. The main cause of this increase is the increasing concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere.
Adam Scaife, head of the global forecast team, explained that “the last three years have exceeded 1.4°C and we predict that 2026 will be the fourth in a row. Before this sudden increase, the global temperature had never exceeded 1.3°C.”
The estimated range for 2026 is between 1.34°C and 1.58°Cwith an average of 1,46 °C above the pre-industrial period.
The threshold of the Paris Agreement
In 2024, a temporary exceedance of 1.5°C was recorded for the first time, and forecasts suggest it could repeat itself in 2026. According to Met Office researcher Nick Dunstone, this shows how quickly the world is moving closer to1.5°C target set in the Paris Agreement.
The scientific community warns that exceeding this limit could trigger more serious climate impactsextreme weather events and reduced adaptation options. Every fraction of a degree avoided is crucial to minimize risks.
WMO and Arctic data
L’World Meteorological Organization (WMO) estimated that the current level of global warming is 1,37 °C above the 1850-1900 average, based on observations over the past decade and projections for 2015-2034.
L’Arctic clearly reflects this trend: between October 2024 and September 2025, the hottest temperature since 1900 has been recorded, and the last ten years have been the coldest ever documented in the region.
The 20th edition of Arctic Report Cardled by the American agency NOAAthe reunion 112 scientists from 14 countries and confirmed that fall 2024 and winter 2025 were the warmest in the entire historical series. Additionally, since 2006, the annual temperature in the Arctic has increased to more than double the global pace.
Projections for 2026 confirm that the planet continues on a path of accelerated warmingwith the Arctic as the most vulnerable region. Scientific evidence highlights the urgency of reduce greenhouse gas emissions and implement adaptation measures to face an increasingly extreme scenario.
