After a quiet start to the year, South Africa’s economic calendar will regain some momentum this week as attention turns to the last mining and manufacturing data for 2025.
On Thursday, Stats SA will release the sectors’ production statistics for December, providing an indication of their overall performances last year.
The metrics could offer insight into the health of two of the industries that have been weighed down by cost pressures in recent years.
Many mining companies called for reforms in electricity pricing last year as the rising cost of power saw dozens of smelters idled and ArcelorMittal South Africa’s long steel operations mothballed, resulting in 3,500 retrenchments.
Business Day reported that South Africa’s embattled ferrochrome industry endured one of its most challenging years in recent memory in 2025, with production dropping 70% year on year.
In manufacturing, factory activity continues to be hampered by structural constraints, predominantly on the logistics front.
Investec economist Lara Hodes predicted that South Africa’s mining output will have lifted by a modest 0.9% year on year in December, a modest recovery from the previous month’s slump.
In addition to logistical constraints, weather-related factors, ageing mines and elevated operational costs remain key challenges for domestic mining operations,
— Lara Hodes, Investec economist
In November, the figure slid for the first time in nine months as logistical constraints weighed on local coal and iron ore companies.
“In addition to logistical constraints, weather-related factors, ageing mines and elevated operational costs remain key challenges for domestic mining operations,” said Hodes.
In the manufacturing sector, production is expected to have declined by 1.5% year on year in December after a 1% contraction in November.
“Manufacturing stuttered through the first two months of the quarter, and the sharp dip in the Absa PMI in December does not bode well,” said Lisette IJssel de Schepper, chief economist at the Bureau of Economic Research (BER), referring to the Absa purchasing managers’ index.
In the longer term, however, the index measuring expectations of business conditions in six months’ time rose to its highest level since September 2024, signalling an optimistic outlook, said Hodes.
With mining accounting for more than 6% of the country’s GDP and manufacturing contributing about 13%, the statistics are key inputs into fourth-quarter GDP dynamics.
In the third quarter, the economy grew for the fourth consecutive quarter, its longest period of sustained growth since the post-Covid recovery began in 2021. The performance was broad-based, with nearly all sectors (except electricity) recording modest gains.
The releases coincide with President Cyril Ramaphosa’s state of the nation address on Thursday, which should provide clues on the government’s key objectives for 2026, as well as detailing progress made on its economic reform agenda so far.
“With the country heading into an election year, the address is expected to strike a balancing act between reform signalling and political caution, though expectations for major policy surprises remain low,” said De Schepper.
