2025 Harvest Forecast: Climate Change Impact

by Archynetys Economy Desk

On the conventional system, the 5 ha of wheat was collected on July 9, despite a complicated cult campaign, the 60 Q/ha bar is just reached, which is, compared to our agronomic potential, rather correct.

On the organic system, more mixed assessment, 4 plots of grain meteil had been established for a total surface of 9.29 ha. The harvest took place a few days after that of the conventional system on July 15. The best plot made 31.3 q/ha, while the worst 23.9 q/ha, for an average at 26.8 q/ha.

From very wet conditions to implantation, a dry and warm end of the cycle, will have undergone our cultures, in particular on the organic system.

To put some figures on climate vagaries, 444.6 mm of precipitation from September 1, 2024 to December 31, 2024 or 62 % of the annual rainfall for the last 20 years (718 mm) recorded over only 4 months.

From January 1 to May 1, return of normal precipitation (228 mm over this period), but the excesses of autumn are still very present, the soils are asphyxiated, the first fertilizer contribution is offset (on the conventional system). The state of winter out -of -winter crops is worrying, the counts confirm a significant lack of feet. Nitrogen fertilization is revised downwards, to be in line with the number of feet and therefore the potential of the plot.

From May 1 to harvest, a turnaround, only 34.6 mm will have fallen to the edges, moreover we will undergo 17 days at more than 30 degrees between June 1 and July 15.

March, April and May will be the clearest months, and will allow cultures to do it again, and to show us that crops in poor condition winter outing can still take their pins from the game, on the return from better days.

In terms of technical routes, there was no intervention on organic plots, a crossing of the Estrille Herse could have been beneficial to “delete” the soils, but unfortunately the conditions of portance did not allow us to be able to intervene before an overly advanced stage of crops. On the conventional wheat plot, grasses/dicotyledon weeding took place on February 21. March 3, 300 kg/ha of 16/15/15 were spread then 238 kg of Ammonitrate 33.5 on March 21, to conclude a half-dose fungicide was made on May 2. A total of 128 units of nitrogen will have been provided in addition to the 38 units of Bortiquat exit winter. From a point of view of operational charges we arrive at a total of 463 euros/ha, knowing that we have used certified seeds (118 euros/ha).

The entire organic and conventional harvest has been stored and will be self-consumed by the two herds.

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