A Temporary Setback for Folding Phones

The burgeoning market for folding cellphones, once predicted for continued expansion, is now facing an unexpected downturn in 2025. Despite the aggressive efforts of numerous manufacturers, including industry giants like Samsung and Huawei, analysts at counterpoint Research foresee a single-digit negative growth of approximately 4% compared to the figures of 2024. This contraction marks a notable shift in the trajectory of this innovative sector.

this news arrives amidst intense competition, with brands such as Honor, Xiaomi, Vivo, and Oppo all vying for market share. Even Apple is rumored to be entering the fray with a folding iPhone in 2026, further intensifying the competitive landscape.

Anticipating a Rebound: The Apple Effect and beyond

Despite the projected slump in 2025, industry experts remain optimistic about the long-term prospects of folding phones. Counterpoint Research anticipates a resurgence in 2026, fueled by the anticipated entry of Apple and other major vendors into the market. This influx of new players is expected to reignite consumer interest and drive sales.

Calvin Lee, Research Director at Counterpoint, notes the positive signals from the supply chain, stating that order volumes are already increasing in anticipation of the 2026 boom.This suggests that manufacturers are preparing for a significant increase in demand, further supporting the prediction of a market rebound.

The supply chain told us that the order had piled up [untuk 2026]
Calvin Lee, Research Director at Counterpoint

2024: A year of Mixed Fortunes

The year 2024 presented a mixed bag for the folding phone market. While the sector experienced a modest overall growth of 2.9% year-on-year, the performance of individual vendors varied considerably. Samsung,despite remaining the market leader,saw a 33% decline in its folding phone sales,contributing to the overall slowdown. Oppo also scaled back production of its more affordable folding models, resulting in a 72% year-on-year growth.

In contrast, other manufacturers experienced substantial growth. Motorola led the pack with a remarkable 253% increase in sales, followed by xiaomi (108%), Honor (106%), and Huawei (54%).Vivo also saw a positive, albeit smaller, growth of 23%.

These figures highlight the dynamic nature of the folding phone market, where innovation and competitive pricing are key to success. As of early 2025, Samsung still holds the largest market share, but Huawei is rapidly gaining ground, showcasing the intense competition within the industry.

Market Change, Not saturation

According to Jene Park, Analyst at Counterpoint, the current situation does not indicate market saturation. Instead, it suggests a market undergoing a significant transformation. This transition requires careful planning and strategic adjustments from manufacturers, which may explain the temporary setback in 2025.

At present, the situation does not look like a market that is reaching a saturation point. This situation looks like a market that will soon transform. This requires a lot of planning, so that there is a slight setback this year.
Jene Park, Analyst at Counterpoint

The folding phone market is still relatively young, and its future trajectory remains uncertain. however, the anticipated entry of new players and the ongoing innovation in design and functionality suggest that folding phones will continue to play a significant role in the mobile landscape.