WASHINGTON – The year 2024 brought significant challenges, and 2025 is poised to be equally tumultuous. The trajectory of these events largely depends on Xi Jinping and his strategies.
Xi Jinping shows no signs of easing his grip, bolstered by a formidable military presence. Economic challenges in China will not deter him from pursuing his objectives.
China’s PLANed Moves in Northeast Asia
Concentrating on Northeast Asia, Taiwan remains a critical target for Xi. His public declarations indicate a strong desire to unify Taiwan under Chinese sovereignty.
Military pressures on Taiwan are likely to persist, complemented by subversion, espionage, and challenges from opposition parties in Taiwan.
Will Xi Attack Taiwan in 2025?
The timing of an attack on Taiwan remains uncertain, but Xi retains the capability to launch an attack at any moment.
China’s maritime aggression will also escalate in the Philippines, with Chinese forces pushing to occupy more of the nation’s territorial waters.
In South Korea, sentiment leans towards North Korea, China, and against the United States. A potential one-party state could be within reach.
China actively supports groups that aim to destabilize South Korea’s government and weaken the alliance with the US.
Recent improved relations between South Korea and Japan are under threat from these provocations.
Japan Falls in Xi’s Crosshairs
China will increase military activities around the Senkaku islands and the Nansei Shoto, aiming to keep Japan in check as it prepares for a move against Taiwan.
Russia will also play a supportive role, with Putin unlikely to ease tensions.
North Korea’s expanded influence is partly due to support from Beijing and Moscow.
Xi will exploit pro-China elements within Japan’s ruling class, suggesting potential deals.
This strategy has proven effective, diverting Japanese focus from building a robust defense.
China’s political warfare extends to other Pacific Islands, where Beijing deepens its influence in nearly every nation and territory.
These actions echo Japan’s militaristic expansion in the 1920s and 1930s, aimed at dominating and pushing the US out of the Asia-Pacific region.
China shows no intention of moderation and is likely to escalate its activities globally.
The only potential restraints are the United States and possibly Donald Trump.
The Role of Washington
The Biden administration failed to significantly impact China under Xi Jinping but has been succeeded by a new leadership that shows stronger resolve.
The new administration, characterized by figures like Marco Rubio and Mike Waltz, has long recognized the threat posed by China.
Rubio’s actions, such as requiring reports on CCP leaders’ overseas wealth, have unnerved Chinese officials.
Pete Hegseth advocates for a stance of “peace through strength” and explicitly names “Communist China” as a threat.
However, some in the Department of Defense still advocate for cooperation spirals with China, a strategy that could weaken the US position.
The US posture towards Taiwan is also uncertain, with some voices suggesting potential setbacks that could jeopardize Taiwan’s defense.
Elon Musk’s relationship with China could add another layer of complexity to US policy.
