US vs Iran: Will Attacks Happen This Weekend?

by drbyos

Aircraft carrier USS Abraham Lincoln in the Indian Ocean (photo from the US military). (Seaman Daniel Kimmelman / US Navy / / Seaman Daniel Kimmelman)
At the beginning of January, the USA sent the aircraft carrier USS Lincoln to the Gulf region. He has now arrived there. According to Trump, additional warships are currently heading towards the country. Trump has repeatedly threatened Tehran with military strikes.

What is Trump about in Iran?

Trump initially threatened Tehran with military intervention because of the bloody crackdown on anti-government protests and possible mass executions. He also spoke out in favor of a change of government. It is time to ensure new leadership in the country, he told Politico magazine.

He is now increasingly focusing on the Iranian nuclear program. After a 12-day war in June in which the United States and Israel bombed Iranian nuclear facilities, Trump insisted that Iran’s nuclear facilities had been “obliterated.”

Yesterday he said he hoped for a “deal” with Tehran. If that doesn’t happen, “we’ll see what happens.” Asked whether he had given Iran a deadline, he replied: “Only they know for sure.”

How is Iran responding to the US threat?

Tehran has agreed to resume talks on its nuclear program. Corresponding negotiations must take place “fairly and on an equal footing” and should not include any debates about his country’s missile stocks or defense capacities, Foreign Minister Araghchi told journalists in Istanbul.

According to Araghtschi, there are currently no concrete plans for a meeting with US representatives to resume nuclear talks with Iran. “Further preparations are required” regarding a possible location and content of the talks. However, he followed up with a warning and added: “The Islamic Republic of Iran is just as ready for negotiations as it is for war.”

On Thursday, Iranian army chief Akraminia threatened on state television that Iran would react “immediately” in the event of a US attack. Possible targets could be US military bases in the Gulf region or an aircraft carrier. Today he said the country had put its armed forces on full defense and combat readiness.

How does the population in Iran view possible US attacks?

Iran is a dictatorship, so there are no independent opinion polls. The “Neue Zürcher Zeitung” interviewed Iranians who stated clearly: “A war with the USA and Israel is our last hope.” The dpa news agency also quotes individual voices from the country. The result is a mixed picture.

The gold trader Mehrdad hopes for improvement without military intervention. An attack could destroy the infrastructure, exacerbate internal tensions and deepen divisions in society: “I’m afraid that an attack will only make things worse.”

Student Armin sees it differently: “Maybe America doesn’t think about our well-being, but we can hope for a better future.” However, he sees no future in his studies, while price explosions and a lack of prospects determine everyday life. He associates an attack with the hope that something will fundamentally change in the country.

More than 6,300 people have been killed in the protests in Iran, including nearly 6,000 demonstrators, according to the US-based organization HRANA. The NGO, which has an extensive network of informants in Iran, added that more than 17,000 other possible deaths were still being investigated.

What will happen in Iran’s planned military maneuvers tomorrow?

Iran’s Revolutionary Guards want to hold military maneuvers in the Strait of Hormuz starting Sunday. The aim is to shoot with live ammunition. The strait is the world’s most important route for oil exports and connects the producing countries in the Gulf with the open sea.

The US military warned the Revolutionary Guards. No “unsafe” maneuvers such as flights over warships or bases at low altitude will be tolerated; this also applies to the approach of Iranian speedboats, said the regional command responsible for the Middle East. The Iranian maneuver should not affect freedom of navigation and international merchant shipping in the important strait.

What do the tensions mean for the Middle East?

The saber rattling between Iran and the USA has caused uncertainty in the Middle East. U.S. allies and partners in the region are working to prevent a threatened military escalation in talks with both sides, an Arab diplomat who spoke on condition of anonymity told the AP news agency. Saudi Arabia, Turkey, Oman and Qatar have expressed their concerns and, among other things, pointed out that the energy markets are being influenced.

Turkish President Erdogan had previously confirmed his willingness to mediate between the USA and Iran.

Further information

Iran: The mullahs’ state is fighting for survival
After protests in Iran: Middle East expert Helberg sees little chance for opposition
Iran: Current situation and background

This message was sent on January 31, 2026 on the Deutschlandfunk program.

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