Mild Covid Winter Wave: A Welcome Reprieve

This winter’s Covid wave in the United States has been the gentlest to date, offering a much-needed respite from the severe surges of the past.

Lower Hospitalization and Death Rates

The Covid hospitalization rate has stayed around half of what it was last year, with a similar decrease in deaths. In late December, weekly deaths were approximately 600 people, a stark contrast to around 2,000 deaths at the same time last winter. During the Omicron surge at the end of 2021, weekly deaths peaked at over 10,000.

Factors Behind the Lull

Michael Mina, an epidemiologist and chief science officer for eMed, attributes this mild winter to residual immunity from a large summer surge and a well-matched vaccine. Peter Chin-Hong, an infectious disease specialist at the University of California, San Francisco, adds that the virus did not pick up mutations that could lead to increased transmission or severity.

Aubree Gordon, an epidemiologist at the University of Michigan, notes that it is common for new viruses to become less severe and transmissible over time. She explains, “You have two or three years of it being really bad – as far as incidence rates and severity goes – and then it settles out.”

Baseline Expectations for Future Waves

Epidemiologists are unsure what a “baseline” Covid wave will look like, but the chances of a variant causing significant harm are lower now, according to Mina. He says, “Should we expect the variants to start to decline, in terms of how quickly they’re rising and how aggressively? The short answer is yes. The virus has grown up.”

Mina attributes this to the population’s enhanced immune response from vaccinations and prior infections, leading to fewer and less severe cases. This, in turn, reduces opportunities for the virus to mutate.

The Ripple Effect: Other Respiratory Viruses

Despite the mildness of the Covid wave, this winter has been challenging for other respiratory viruses. The weekly flu hospitalization rate this year surpassed last winter’s peak, and hospitalizations for respiratory syncytial virus (R.S.V.) have mirrored last year’s levels. Norovirus, though not respiratory, is also notably high this year.

Flu and Covid have had a similar death toll so far this season, numbering around 8,000 to 9,000 people. Since the start of last summer, approximately 25,000 people have died from Covid. Although getting one virus can temporarily lower the risk of getting another, it is still possible for multiple viruses to surge simultaneously.

Looking Ahead: Future Seasons and Waves

The comparison with flu is useful because, like flu, Covid is here to stay. While there will be better and worse seasons, this winter may represent the low side of our new baseline. Professor Gordon notes, “As with flu, there’ll be better and worse seasons.”

Unlike flu, however, there may be more waves outside of winter. While the timing of Covid’s winter surge has been relatively consistent, peaking in early January each year, its other waves have not yet fallen into a clear pattern. A mild surge during the winter holidays could mean a worse one later this year, possibly even later this winter.

Dr. Chin-Hong points out, “There might be some good times, some bad times. So whether or not we’ll get something later on? We have to have humility.”

Conclusion: A Ray of Hope

For now, there is a measure of relief for Americans, and the experts who have tracked the virus for five years. “If I never saw a crazy variant for the rest of my life,” Dr. Chin-Hong said, “I’d be so excited.”

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