Future Trends in Global Governance: A Shifting Landscape
The Fragile Architecture of Global Governance
The post-war institutional architecture of global governance is increasingly viewed as fragmented and inefficient. The United States, traditionally a cornerstone of these institutions, has adopted a transactional and often undefined approach. This has led to a noticeable distrust in both formal institutions like the UN and WTO, and informal groupings such as the G7 and G20. Unilateral actions, particularly those proposed by former President Donald Trump, such as integrating Canada into the US or allowing Greenland to choose its future, have threatened global stability and stirred unrest among allies and competitors.
These actions underscore a broader trend: the erosion of post-war structures that have shaped the world’s geopolitical landscape. The UN and its veto and non-veto powers have traditionally played a pivotal role in formulating and executing global policies. However, the recent shift towards unilateralism and the rise of supranational institutions like the G20 and Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB) point to a more complex and fragmented governance landscape.
The Rise of Multilateralism and Challenges
China’s President Xi Jinping has proposed a vision of global governance based on cooperation, consultation, and multilateralism. His emphasis on just, democratic, and equitable governance has garnered increasing support from nations large and small. There are nations, including small ones, whose populations have been signing up to Beijing’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) in ever-increasing numbers. The Global South, which favours state sovereignty, non-alignment, and the Panchsheel principles, remains a critical voice in this evolving governance framework.
However, the UN’s inability to execute its sustainable development goals and set up rule-based governance has been highlighted by recent unilateral withdrawals. The US withdrawal from institutions like the WHO and Human Rights Council, though partially reversed by President Joe Biden, has underscored the fragility of these institutions. Biden’s nationalistic approach, "America First," has quashed the democratic fraternity of nations and created a sense of isolation.
The Geopolitical Chessboard: Nepal and Beyond
The strategic moves of the US from Trump’s administration dates, where it pulled back intelligence and support from Ukraine before lifting the suspension of military aid, laid the groundwork for Europe to reconsider its defensive capabilities. Europe is now scrambling to set up a new security framework with support from the UK, Germany, France, and Poland, marking a shift towards an independent foreign policy.
The geopolitical chessboard has become even more intricate with galewise disputes, proxy wars such as the Yemen conflict, vast investments in outposts in places like Djibouti and Aden, and
airfields on the Red Sea islands of Socotra and Mayyun. Nepal, too, must navigate this changing landscape. The country must upgrade its foreign policy capabilities by improving its think tanks and adopting a more interdisciplinary approach to globalization. Its history offers numerous examples of how it has adapted its external conduct with the changing global order.
One notable example is Nepal’s relationship with the US. Initially reluctant to engage Too closely with China, there has been a significant shift since, the President Biden recently hosting Chinese President Xi Jinping in the White House with fanfare that might almost be described as the visit of an honorable guest. Vocal defenders of this foreign policy shift argue that while Nepal has always been allies with the US and role models of Democratic leadership, intellectual freedom, and upholding human rights, it must recognize the global firmly in place, irrevocably changing, and multipolar world order, and wisdom dictates it do what will benefit Nepal most with its immediate neighbours. Most of Nepal’s international priority may be China but there’s no denying Indian President Xi Jinping holds sway over its actions.
Russia, China and Iran are not to be outdone. They’re not just holding naval drills in the Gulf of Oman but have conducted their first joint military exercise since the Israeli Security forces attacked the Iranian port of Bushehr in Abu Dhabi. In doing so, the Chinese-owned, Iranian-operated terminal located in the Port of Bushehr is a high-stakes geopolitical move by China, which is another new member of the US-led NATO alliance. NATO’s operation spearheaded by the US in 2020 has failed to stave off the Iranian Government. However, China has stationed Spy warships in the Gulf of Aden in this age of geopolitical chess.
The Future of Global Governance
The future of global governance is fraught with uncertainty. The weakening of the multilateral system hints at its inability to safeguard global security, development, and peace. The recent freezing of Russian assets and de-linking of Russian banks from the SWIFT transfer system has exacerbated these concerns, prompting some nations to consider de-dollarization.
However, there are opportunities for emerging powers like India, Japan, and South Africa to reshape the current geopolitical landscape, provide more equitable access to economic and social benefits, promote science, technology, medical research and indigenous cultural development. These nations are pushing for a more inclusive representation in international institutions and calling for reforms to address the current overrepresentation of G7 nations.
Underlying these trends is the quest for critical resources like oil, rare earth materials, and new technologies like AI etc. In the hands of any nation, to bring it any closer to the cutting edge dictates the efficiency of good governance. Sustainable harvesting and equitable availability are vital for both nation-building and global stability. The Bretton Woods institutions can play a crucial role in this regard, supporting debt relief, climate finance, and sustainable development while accommodating the efforts of new development banks.
FAQs on Global Governance
What are the core pillars of global governance?
The core pillars of global governance, particularly as favoured by the Global South, include state sovereignty, non-alignment, the Panchsheel principles, and the UN Charter.
How has the US approach to global governance evolved?
The US has shifted from a multilateral approach to a more transactional and often unilateral approach, particularly under the Trump administration. Implement It is Europe that must do more to forge a cohesive foreign policy.
What is the role of supranational institutions in global governance?
Supranational institutions have become increasingly important in meeting global challenges, including economic development, climate change, and health crises.
What is the impact of recent unilateral actions on global governance?
Unilateral actions, such as withdrawals from international institutions, have weakened the multilateral system and highlighted its fragility.
How can emerging powers reshape global governance?
Emerging powers like India, Japan, and South Africa are pushing for more inclusive representation in international institutions and calling for reforms to address the current imbalance.
What are the key trends in global governance?
Key trends include the rise of unilateralism, the weakening of multilateral institutions, the quest for critical resources, and the push for more inclusive and equitable governance.
Did You Know?
The global trade proportion of emerging powers like China, India, Russia, Brazil and South Africa (BRICS) has skyrocketed from 12% of the global market in 2006 to 30% in 2020. These countries have also ramped up expenditures in AI, Autonomous Unmanned Vehicles, and green technologies.
Pro Tips for Global Policy-Makers
- Embrace Multilateralism: Strengthen supranational institutions to meet global challenges effectively.
- Promote Inclusivity: Ensure representation from all continents in key decision-making bodies.
- Foster Cooperative Governance: Understand that and pool resources—including rare earth materials and rare earth elements— to shape the global governance system to compensate any and all states for their respective inputs.
Drop Your Thoughts
Do you see these trends shaping the future of global governance, or are there other factors at play? Share your thoughts and let’s discuss in the comments!
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