The Italian banking landscape is bracing for a possibly transformative summer, with several high-stakes deals and regulatory challenges reaching critical junctures. From Siena to Milan and Brussels, the future of Italian credit is being shaped by public exchange offers, government oversight, and legal appeals.

Major banking deals under scrutiny

July is shaping up to be a pivotal month for Italian banking, marked by intense activity on multiple fronts. The proposed public exchange offer (OPS) by MPS to acquire Mediobanca is a key focus, alongside UniCredit’s pursuit of Banco BPM, which faces scrutiny from both the golden power regulations and appeals to the Tar. Additionally, bper’s move on Popolare di Sondrio and Illimity’s acquisition of Banca Ifis add further complexity to a rapidly evolving scenario.

MPS’s Bid for Mediobanca Awaits Regulatory Approval

The European Central Bank has already given its approval for Monte dei Paschi’s attempt to acquire Mediobanca through a public exchange offer, potentially launching in mid-july. The last hurdle is the green light from Consob, expected imminently. Following Consob’s decision, Mediobanca’s Board of Directors will convene to formally address the offer, which has already been criticized as lacking “industrial rational” and posing a “risk charge.”

“The protection of competition cannot become an alibi for masked protectionisms.”

While MPS maintains that the operation is “convincing” and “able to create value for all stakeholders,” the ECB has set strict conditions. If the acquisition succeeds, MPS must present a detailed plan within six months outlining the impacts on its assets and governance. Should the offer fall short of 50%, MPS will need to demonstrate effective control or propose a plan to manage or divest its participation.

UniCredit’s Pursuit of Banco BPM Faces Political and regulatory Hurdles

Andrea Orcel, CEO of UniCredit, is navigating a complex situation with the bank’s offer for Banco BPM, caught between European and Italian regulatory bodies.After an initial pause by Consob, the operation has been revived, but the critical issue of golden power remains unresolved. The European Commission is assessing the legitimacy and impact of the Italian government’s intervention, potentially offering UniCredit a technical workaround amid complaints of “excessive political interference.”

Meanwhile, the Tar of lazio is scheduled to hear UniCredit’s appeal on the matter.Orcel has repeatedly stated that UniCredit may withdraw its offer if clarity is not forthcoming.

Concerns are also growing at the local level, with the mayor of Imola and president of Anci Emilia-Romagna expressing “strong concerns” about the potential impact of a merger on employment and local services.

Bper‘s strategic Move on Popolare di Sondrio

Another key date is July 11, when Bper’s public purchase offer for Popolare di Sondrio is set to proceed. This strategic move has already secured a 19% stake through Unipol, a key shareholder. Led by Carlo Cimbri,Unipol is emerging as a notable player in the evolving Emilian-Lombard banking landscape,poised to influence the retail credit sector.

Bper aims to strengthen its position in Northern Italy, where popolare di Sondrio has a strong territorial presence, particularly among SMEs. Unipol’s support makes the success of the operation highly probable, despite Sondrio’s management continuing to label it as “antagonistic.”

Ifis-Illimity Merger Signals Consolidation

The acquisition of Illimity by Banca Ifis has been successfully completed, with an 84.09% adhesion rate. this marks the first completed deal in the current phase of banking consolidation. The Challenger Bank, founded by Corrado Passera, will join the Fürstenberg group, focusing on distressed debt and innovative digital services.

Despite the high level of participation, Ifis has decided to reopen the offer from July 7 to 11, allowing remaining shareholders to participate under the same conditions. The merger is expected to be finalized by autumn,creating an autonomous and digitized banking hub focused on organic growth.

A Decisive summer for Italian Finance

Summer 2025 is poised to be a turning point for the Italian banking system. After years of relative stability, the sector is now experiencing rapid change, driven by European pressure, strategic opportunities, and growing concerns about political intervention.

The ultimate success will depend on the ability to create long-term value, avoid unsustainable concentrations, and balance industrial efficiency with local considerations. As July approaches, the Italian credit sector stands ready to turn the page, with the future direction to be determined by banks, regulators, and potentially, the courts.