Unsettled Weather Pattern Dominates the South

Southern Italy is poised to experience a week of dynamic weather conditions, characterized by significant rainfall and potential localized disruptions.A developing depression near the Balearic Islands is the primary driver, injecting instability across the region.

Forecasting models, including those from ECMWF and GFS, indicate a series of Atlantic disturbances converging with humid airflows originating from the Afro-mediterranean region. This confluence is expected to generate ample rainfall across numerous southern regions.

Regional Forecast: Day-by-Day Breakdown

Tuesday: Arrival of an “Atmospheric River”

As the low-pressure system drifts towards Italy, instability will intensify across central and southern regions. Expect widespread rain, showers, and potential thunderstorms. Eastern Sicily and Calabria are especially vulnerable, with rainfall accumulations perhaps reaching 50-60 mm in localized areas.

Northern Puglia, especially the Gargano region, may also experience moderate rainfall. This weather system is being fueled by an atmospheric river, a concentrated stream of tropical moisture originating from West Africa.

Even parts of Northern Italy, specifically Emilia Romagna and the Northeast, could see afternoon thunderstorms, potentially affecting plains areas like Basso veneto. The rest of Northern Italy should experience drier conditions.

Wednesday: Depression Shifts Eastward

by Wednesday, March 26th, the depression is expected to move towards the Ionian Sea, bringing heavy rainfall to Campania, Ionian Calabria, Basilicata, and southern Puglia (Salento). Projections suggest significant rainfall accumulations, potentially reaching 80-100 mm within 24 hours along the Campanian coast and Ionian Calabria and Lucania. scirocco winds could exacerbate the risk of thunderstorms and localized storms, potentially leading to critical situations.

The projections indicate significant accumulations, up to 80-100 mm in 24 hours on the bell coast and on the Ionian Calabrian and lucanian, with scirocco winds that could exacerbate the risk of thunderstorms and some local storms, capable of causing local critical issues.

Sicily will also be affected, with the ionian coast (Syracuse, Catania, and Messina) under close observation for intense showers and thunderstorms.

Thursday: Lingering Instability

Despite a gradual weakening of the depression on Thursday, March 27th, unstable conditions will persist. A new disturbance from the west will maintain widespread rainfall across Campania (particularly the Neapolitan and Salerno areas), Molise, and central puglia.

inland areas like Irpinia and Sannio could experience significant rainfall. Southerly winds will keep temperatures relatively mild, with highs between +16°C and +20°C.

Friday and Weekend Outlook

Towards the end of the week, the focus of the bad weather will shift to the eastern regions of the South. On Friday, March 28th, Basilicata and molise will be most affected, with intense rains and accumulations estimated between 40 and 60 mm. Puglia, especially from bari and Salento, will see increased rainfall, while conditions in Campania and Calabria will gradually improve, though isolated showers will remain possible.

Saturday, March 29th, will see continued instability in the south, with new rains expected in northern Sicily and along the Ionian coast. Sunday, March 30th, should bring a gradual betterment, though Basilicata, Molise, and northern Puglia may still experience precipitation, albeit less intense than previous days (20-40 mm).

Campania and western Sicily are expected to see improved conditions, while Calabria will remain under the influence of cloud cover and scattered rains. Temperatures, aided by southern winds, will remain above the seasonal average, with coastal areas potentially reaching +18°C to +22°C.

Areas at Highest Risk

Southern Italy is expected to experience a particularly wet week, with total rainfall accumulations potentially exceeding 150-200 mm in areas like Tyrrhenian Calabria and Northern Sicily. Puglia, Basilicata, and Campania will also be substantially affected. These regions are considered the most exposed.

This week he promises to be particularly rainy for Southern Italy, with total accumulations that in some areas, such as Tyrrhenian Calabria and Northern Sicily, could exceed 150-200 mm over the seven days. But abundant rains will affect also part of Puglia,Basilicata and Campania.

Residents and workers in these high-risk areas should closely monitor weather updates and heed any alerts issued by the Civil Protection, particularly in areas prone to hydrogeological instability. According to recent data from the italian national Institute for Environmental Protection and Research (ISPRA), over 90% of Italian municipalities are at risk of landslides and floods, highlighting the importance of preparedness.

Stay Informed

Despite the anticipated rainfall, temperatures are expected to remain mild, creating an almost spring-like feel despite the inclement weather.

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