The Santiago Stock Exchange exceeded the historical brand of 9,000 points this Wednesday, in a scenario in which investors seek to anticipate an opposition victory in the November elections.
Also, encouraged by the greatest monetary flexibility that is expected after the latest employment data in the United States.
The Chilean S&P Ipsa climbed 0.8% to unpublished 9,062.92 points. With this, he went up for the third consecutive session, closed for the first time on the 9,000 mark and achieved its 47th record so far this year.
National shares traveled solids $ 186 billion.
The increases in the day were headed by Itaú, with 2.8%; Engie, which advanced 2.5%; and Enel Chile, which won 2.2%. It was followed by BCI (2.2%), Quiñenco (2.1%) and Banco de Chile (1.7%), contributing more impulse thanks to its weighting.
“The market is already more likely a politician of a politician in November, however, we have not seen that they are paying for scenarios that could be even more favorable, such as a slight inclination of the Chamber of Deputies towards the current opposition.” Leonardo Vásquez, Equity Portfolio Manager of Credicorp Capital
Pro growth policies
“The rally is not an accident, but the anticipation of the thesis that houses of foreign studies have begun to look with good eyes in the local stock market. The market is simply beginning to discount that this positive scenario is no longer so hypothetical. The surprise is not the rise, but the speed with which it materializes since the improvements of expectations have been late,” said the equity portfolio manager of Credicorp capital, Leonardo Vásquez.
Thus, the positive comments that Morgan Stanley posted on Tuesday, in a report where it raises its target price to 10,900 points for mid -2026 (scenario that was previously its upward case) has not gone unnoticed.
“Our base case assumes that the next government will probably apply orthodox economic policies, but will have limited support in Congress. This scenario could be developed if José Antonio Kast or Evelyn Matthei wins the presidency, which seems the most likely result according to current surveys,” said the US bank.
“In any case, we believe that some reforms aimed at improving the trend growth of Chile (currently at 1.8%) and raising it up to about 2.6%can be approved. The range of reforms includes some corporate fiscal reductions, the application of pension reform – whose effects are expected for several years – and a certain deregulation,” he said.
The Morgan Stanley target is supported by a potential price-utility multiple until 13 times of Chilean shares (compared to 11.7 times when they quote today) and also in the expectation that dollars in dollars will grow 13% in 2026 and 4% in 2027.
Previously, Bradesco and Itaú Brazilian banks have also highlighted the catalyst milestone that are the elections for the local square.
Common denominator
For the Deputy Manager of Variable Rent Studies in BICE Inversiones, Aldo Morales, “what has been surprising is the magnitude of the rally and has occurred in a global context that has not necessarily been positive for Latin America, product of tariff ads and challenging economic context in China.”
The Executive stressed that, if the returns of Latin America’s bags are looked at, all countries have shown similar trends, and the common denominator has been monetary stimuli (or expectation), valuation and potential change of political cycle, especially in Brazil, Colombia and Chile.
According to Vásquez, “the market already discounts more likely a politician turn in November, however, we have not seen that they are being paid for scenarios that could be even more favorable, such as a slight inclination of the Chamber of Deputies towards the current opposition, which would be the catalyst so that reforms that consolidate a potential growth greater than that observed in the last decade can be implemented.”
Morales estimated that “the market will not actively expose the elections”, since “the risk-return balance of a binary event in this case is not attractive after a rally.” However, he anticipated that “once located in a new presidential and parliamentary scenario, which leads to a reactivation in growth and investment, we will probably see a new air and multiples could be justified closer to 15 times price-utility.”
So far this year, IPSA has risen 35% in local currency and 38.6% adjusted by exchange rate. This last figure appears in the 20th position of the total return ranking of primary Bloomberg indexes. At the regional level, Chile is only exceeded by Colombia that rent 55.2% in dollars.
US situation
Meanwhile, at Wall Street, the Nasdaq advanced 1% and the S&P 500 won 0.5% with an important support from Alphabet (9%), after the antimonopoly regulator dictated that its subsidiary Google will not be obliged to sell the Chrome website. For its part, Dow Jones closed flat.
The short rates loosen, while the operators already give practically because of the Federal Reserve will lower its official type at this month’s meeting. Moreover, long rates fell, completely reversing their rises on Tuesday.
The adjustments were marked by the negative surprise in the Julio’s job offers.
