Ishiba Shigeru, who with surprising tenacity seemed to want to hold on to his prime minister even after the great setback that the latest elections to the Chamber of Counselors had led to the Democratic Liberal Party, has given up continuing as soon as the party has made a gesture of withdrawing his confidence. The perspectives are not too flattering for a party that has been in the minority in both cameras.
A party managed by an “internal opposition”
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The resignation of Prime Minister Ishiba Shigeru arrived only on September 7, just before the Democratic Liberal Party (PLD) was processed to discuss the convenience of advancing the internal elections to the presidency. The proposal had received the majority support of the parliamentarians of the diet (National Parliament) and the prefectural federations of the party and, given the imminence of the call, Ishiba was forced to reverse its intention to remain in office.
The intention shown so far by Ishiba of continuing in office did not enter the parameters of “common sense” prevailing in the PLD, if we think that the reverse suffered in the July elections to the Chamber of Counselors (upper house) was preceded by an equally resounding failure in those of October last year to the House of Representatives (lower house), also under its presidency. We have seen a PLD in continuous bewilderment, taken from here to there by a minority direction that has worked as an opposition within the party itself.
Formed in 1955, on November 15 the PLD will turn 70. Since that of Hatoyama Ichirō 28 presidencies have occurred, occupied by a total of 27 people (Abe Shinzō was chosen twice). There have not been many presidents who have left office without regret and after having fulfilled a complete mandate. We could include Nakasone Yasuhiro, Koizumi Jun’ichirō already very few more. The rest has departed from power in circumstances “alien to her will”, as was the case of Abe, who resigned from his first presidency for health reasons, Tanaka Kakuei, wrapped in a spectacular scandal, or Kishida Fumio, who had to give up re -election shortly before the internal elections were celebrated. Ishiba will swell the ranks of that same group.
Resign after an electoral failure, part of the political culture of the PLD
From the Electoral Fiasco on July 20 to the announcement of September 7, 49 days have elapsed, an exceptional and unknown stubbornness in the PLD in the case of a “defeated general” in two battles, the first of which, last October, left the matches of the government coalition in frank minority in the House of Representatives.
If we review the history of the PLD, we find that its prime ministers have resigned whenever the party has lost many seats in one of the national elections. Miki Takeo saw in 1976 how his party lost for the first time the absolute majority in the House of Representatives and immediately resigned. Miyazawa Kiichi also left the Government Headquarters after being defeated in the 1993 generals. With him ended 38 consecutive years of prime ministers of the PLD. Hosokawa Morihiro happened at the head of a coalition formed by opposition parties. Asō Tarō also suffered a historic defeat that again threw the PLD of power, as a result of which he also left the presidency of the party.
The same can be said of those who suffered defeats in the elections to the Chamber of Counselors despite conserving the majority in the casualty. One Sōsuke left the Government’s Headquarters after a debacle in this Chamber of which the Socialist Party was the great beneficiary. Hashimoto Ryūtarō also resigned after losing many of the seats that were put into play (the upper house is renewed by halves). Abe took a month and a half to react to the failure of the 2007 elections but finally left the presidency.
Be responsible for an electoral failure leaving the presidency of the party has been in the PLD a tacitly accepted commitment, something that, in some way, is part of its political culture.
In the heading of the governance code established by the PLD in May 2022, it is specified that “the foundation of the governance of a political party resides in the popular verdict expressed in the elections”. This can only mean that a leader who receives a severe popular verdict in elections loses his authority and therefore is forced to retire.
The idea expressed by the saying that says “Kateba Kangun, Makereba Zokugun” (literally: “If they expire, they were the official army (legitimate); if they lose, some bandits”) continue to dominate the PLD, a match for which to win in the elections is everything. It is evident to everyone’s eyes that a president who has lost elections will not be able to continue driving the government properly. Abe was a special case, but the rest resigned after the elections, either by their own, well following advice of their most relative collaborators.
A former prime minister expressed it in this way: “Assume all the responsibility leaving the position even in the case of not having been the culprit at all [de un fracaso electoral] It allows to regenerate the party. It is the way to show that you are a president worthy of that name and love the PLD. ”
A tenacity supported by public opinion
This has not happened with Ishiba. He has not been aware of the situation until the imminence of a call for anticipated internal elections has put it against the strings.
On July 21, a day after the last elections, he expressed his desire to stay in office saying that he had to continue fulfilling his “responsibility before the State and citizenship as [jefe del] majority party ”so that there was no political stoppage.
Being in charge of the Government of the Nation and, at the same time, in a minority in both cameras it was an unprecedented situation and, undoubtedly, in the party it was received with strangeness that Ishiba did not even mention the possibility of resigning.
The leader of one of the extinct PLD factions provided that Istiba would clarify when he was going to leave the position once the negotiations with the United States for the tariffs were concluded and the diplomatic calendar was clear, but not even in the meeting held on July 23 with three other members of the party with experience as prime ministers suggested that he would resign.
It was then that the movement took shape to tear it down. Undoubtedly, for Ishiba it must have been especially hurtful that the initiative started precisely from the extinct ABE and Motegi factions, which had been highly criticized for their involvement in an alleged illegal financing. Ishiba’s struggle spirit must have received a strong stimulus to know that those who pressed to tear it were those who, with their irregular handling of the party’s funds, had been responsible for the loss of popularity of the party that focused on the defeats in the two cameras of the diet.
Ishiba felt supported by popular demonstrations in the streets and by sending to the offices of the parliamentarians of the diet of support. But what gave him the most forces were the surveys published in different media, which reflected that as the days passed the support to the government cabinet was growing and that those who wanted Ishiba not to resign were more numerous than those who wanted to do so. Before being appointed prime minister, Ihiba led the list of popular preferences to occupy that position and had always been able to compensate with this citizen support for its weak position among PLD parliamentarians. This was undoubtedly an important factor that pushed him to continue in office.
He also played in his favor the fact that, despite directing a parliamentary minority, during the last ordinary period of sessions of the diet had been able to process the general budgets and carry out some laws. One of the four highest executive positions of the party indicates that Ishiba’s willingness to move on was also supported by uncertainty about who could happen or how a new cabinet could be structured.
However, at the beginning of September these four senior executives, with Secretary General Moriyama Hiroshi in the lead, made a general assessment of the results of the latest elections to the Chamber of Counselors and announced their intention of Dimitr. Leaving the decision about his own resignation in the hands of Ihiba, Moriyama, who had been the architect of this same cabinet, paralyzed the work of the rest of the executives.
The method followed by demanding that by positioning themselves in favor or against advancing the internal elections, the parliamentarians were personally identified as an authoritarian imposition and, above all, what to a greater extent made the spark of the protest jump was the disseminated idea that Istiba would force the dissolution of the lower house and the call for general elections if the advance of the internal elections was decided. The method of suffocating the protest through force only managed to advance the end of Istiba.
An attachment to the explainable power for the minority position in the party
The claim to continue in power was unreasonable from the beginning. What, ultimately, led to this atypical situation in which the convenience of advancing the elections had to be considered, which meant dividing the party into two?
A possible interpretation is that, as one of the members of the Party with experience as Prime Minister, Ishiba pointed out, is a politician with little attachment to the party, who in fact already abandoned him on one occasion, and little determined. Without judging whether this description is fair or not, it is very likely that the answer has a lot to do with its long minority position on the periphery of the party during the long period in which the ill -fated abe held an absolute supremacy.
It should be suspected that the most remote politicians have been from the circles of power are precisely the ones who feel the most attachment for him when they reach it. If we look back, towards what was the PLD during the 70s of the last century, we found a parallel between Ishiba’s attitude and the one he showed when his resignation was demanded to the then Prime Minister Miki, who had obtained the position from an equally peripheral position, taking advantage of a power emptiness. Miki, a politician of great popular support who raised the flag of clarification of responsibilities in the Lockheed company scandal, clung extraordinarily in his charge, openly facing the body of the party that watched over the internal unity, and that had positioned himself against his continuity.
The intention shown by Miki is also very similar to the case of Ilki when it was already against the strings of convening an extraordinary session of the diet and proceeding to dissolve the lower house. His attempt was aborted by the 15 members of his cabinet, but both Miki and Iliba have been politicians who, precisely to know what it is to be long outside the power circles, also know very well what it means to hold it.
Takaichi and Hayashi join the race for the presidency
Once I ishiba’s intention to resign, the entire PLD has mobilized for the imminent internal elections. The most meaning to replace him is the current Minister of Agriculture, Koizumi Shinjirō, who was the third most voted candidate in the elections to the presidency of last year’s presidency. On the night of September 6, accompanied by the Vice President of the PLD, Suga Yoshihide, Koizumi visited Ishiba in his office and asked him to resign to avoid the division of the party. This happened two days before the completion of the application for advanced elections. The visit was one of the acts in this “drama” of the resignation of Ishiba. Koizumi has in his favor to be young, to have gathered around him a team of equally young politicians and have good relations with the opponent Nihon Ishin no Kai.
He has also expressed his intention to present himself as a candidate Takaichi Sanae, who was defeated in the second round of last year’s interns after having achieved the greatest number of votes in the first round. However, he must first reinforce his support, since many of the parliamentarians who could have helped him get the 20 guarantees necessary to present candidacy lost their seats in the last elections to both cameras.
Another of the “presidents” is the current Hayashi Yoshimasa government spokesman, a man with a reputation for the ability to formulate policies. It was fourth in the last internal elections. It provides stability but not novelty, and that may be its weak point.
As in the last elections, they will also attend as a candidate Motegi Toshimitsu, leader of one of the old PLD factions. And it is believed that it will also be in the Kobayashi Takayuki race, another young politician with support in the new generations of the party.
The way in which the internal elections will be held will be set by the election management committee, but, whether the participation is extended to all the militants of the party or a reduced elections are chosen, giving primacy to the vote of the parliamentarians of the diet, the PLD must act quickly. If stability does not return and the necessary political measures are launched, the consequences will be serious for a country that needs an impulse.
Photograph of the heading: Prime Minister Ishiba Shigeru during the press conference in his office in which he announced his intention to resign, on September 7, 2025. (Photography: Kyōdō Press)
(Translated into Spanish from the original in Japanese.)
