S-300 anti-aircraft missile system at an arms exhibition in Tehran, 2017. Photo: Fatemeh Bahrami/Anadolu Agency/Getty Images
We are sitting in the international politics department, studying where fuel comes from in Israel. “In theory,” I say, “Iran should hit the oil refinery in Haifa – the largest plant there.” So what do you think? Five minutes later the news appears: Iran launched a missile attack on an oil refinery in Haifa. The Nasrallah missile (in honor of the Hezbollah leader killed by the Israelis), which he used for the first time. The factory is in smoke.
US Director of National Intelligence Gabbard assessed the results of the US and Israeli war against Iran
In details, the war between the United States and Israel with Iran is predictable, but in the main it is not. When and how will all this end? If oil and gas infrastructure throughout the Middle East is bombed, recovery could take decades. And there is also the nuclear factor…
Much depends on what Trump chooses – to retreat in a few weeks, declaring victory, to land troops on the shores of the Strait of Hormuz, to seize Iranian uranium… Much – but not all. Israel has its own goals in this war. He is ready to go to any extreme to remove the regime in Tehran, and burn everything with fire. Well, in Iran they are not going to give up. And they say: “The blood of martyrs is the key to overcoming storms.”
At the end of this material, however, I will give the probability of different scenarios as a percentage.
ISRAEL’S IMPACT AND IRAN’S RESPONSE CAUSED A “GAS TSUNAMI”
The main event of the last days of the war was the exchange of attacks on very important energy facilities. And its consequences for the global economy.
Israel attacked the world’s largest gas field, which is located under the waters of the Persian Gulf. Its Iranian part is called “South Pars” (the northern part belongs to Qatar).
They hit the Asaluyeh hub in Bushehr province, where gas is supplied from offshore platforms for processing. The exact damage is unknown, Tel Aviv claims to have knocked out 20% of its capacity.
Iran uses more than 90% of gas for its own needs, and uses it to generate almost all of its electricity.
The response was furious: Tehran hit Qatar’s Ras Laffan Industrial City liquefied natural gas plant, which produces 20% of the world’s LNG. And gas prices flew into space – at auction in Europe they increased by a third.
The plant has been closed for 17 days (they were afraid of drones), but now most of the capacity has been destroyed, restoration will take up to five years. Special Representative of the President of Russia Kirill Dmitriev called what was happening “a tsunami that will devastate Europe.”
Then Trump comes out and says: gentlemen, it wasn’t us who hit the Iranian field, it was Israel. Netanyahu is like that, sometimes he acts in his own way. I’ll ask him not to do that again. But if Iran continues to attack Qatar’s energy sector, the States will blow up South Pars entirely (Donald, of course, did not mean the gas itself, which lies in layers under the seabed, but platforms in the sea, pipelines, and so on).
And then Netanyahu comes out: yes, yes, we ourselves decided to bomb the Iranian hub, but Donald asked, and in the future we will refrain.
TRUMP AND NETANYAHU PLAYED A GAME OF FOUR HANDS
In fact, Israel and the United States most likely played this game together. We watch our hands.
America is the largest exporter of LNG in the world. American gas companies made a lot of money from the war.
Analysts have calculated: if Qatari gas is blocked for another 8 months, gas workers in the United States will enrich themselves by at least an extra $108 billion. (In the United States today, the cost of gas has increased by only 3%, imagine the margin with which it can be exported).
The main thing for Donald here is not to cross the line beyond which his American voters will begin to groan from rising prices.
And Iran’s Middle Eastern neighbors are in panic. Qatar, the Emirates and the Saudis are calling on Washington: stop. The Qatari prime minister said: “The war must stop immediately. Everyone knows who its main beneficiary is and who is dragging the entire region into the conflict” (meaning Israel).
Oman’s Foreign Minister Badr al-Busaidi (Oman had good relations with Iran, the Omanis mediated the negotiations) wrote in an article for The Economist: US friends should help get it out of the illegal war. Friends are the Gulf countries, Japan and Korea, Europe and other Swedes. Let’s negotiate!
As a result of an Israeli attack, the world’s largest oil and gas field, South Pars, caught fire.
Photo: REUTERS.
THE US IS RUNNING OUT OF MISSILES
But there is no sign of negotiations. It’s in vain that the Pentagon is asking Congress for another $200 billion. War Secretary Pete Hegseth snapped: “We need money to kill bad guys.”
This request – a quarter of the Pentagon’s entire annual budget – suggests that the United States is preparing for a protracted war. Trump, however, clarified: money is needed not only for Iran, there are many reasons, instability, you know.
However, such means cannot be mastered instantly. Let’s do the math. Before the start of the war, the United States had approximately 4,000 Tomahawk missiles in stock. In the first three days of the conflict alone, according to the National Interest, they spent 400 grand. But they produce only 100 per year.
Meanwhile, the director of the German defense concern Rheinmetall, Armin Papperger, claims: warehouses of missiles and air defense systems in the States, Europe, and the Middle East are almost empty. Another month of hostilities and that’s it…
Asked whether there would be a ground operation in Iran, Donald replied: “I’m not sending troops anywhere.” But literally an hour or two later, Netanyahu appeared on the screens and declared: “Revolutions don’t happen from the air – that’s true. There must be a ground component. This ground component has many options, I will take the liberty of not disclosing them.”
Well, who is wagging who here?
Komsomolskaya Pravda experts allowed an American landing in the Persian Gulf on Khark Island, on which 90% of Iranian oil exports depend, or on the coast of the Strait of Hormuz. This will not happen without heavy losses among the American military. But the cult of martyrs is not alien to America. Donald warned: “We expect sacrifices, but in the end it will be of great benefit to the world.” And Hegseth explained: “This does not weaken us one iota, it strengthens our spine and determination.”
WHAT STRIKES DID THE USA AND ISRAEL DEAL?
Iran, apparently, is doing better with missiles, but the enemy is hitting warehouses and launchers.
The Pentagon showed the ruins of a plant for the production of surface-to-surface ballistic missiles in Karaj, 20 kilometers from Tehran, filmed from satellite.
The Americans attacked a missile base in the city of Borazjan (Busher province). And they report on the “destruction of Iranian naval facilities” that threaten shipping in the Strait of Hormuz. Anti-bunker bombs were used against Iranian missile positions on the coast of the strait.
The Israelis, not counting their “gas exploits,” fired at the small Iranian fleet in the Caspian Sea – there is one frigate, one corvette, three missile boats and several patrol boats. The port of Bender-Anzeli, where the headquarters of the local naval district is located, by the way, is used for trade with Russia.
WHAT STRIKES DID IRAN DEAL ON MARCH 19, 2026
Most of all, the Iranians were proud of the fact that they shot down the American fifth-generation fighter F-35 – it made an emergency landing, the pilot was in the hospital. The American command also recognized this.
Iranian media write: “The first ever US recognition of the defeat of the F-35! This fighter jet is a technological symbol of the United States… The former Hollywood order has collided with the great wall of reality called Iran.”
Tehran called the attack on oil refineries in Haifa and Ashdod the second big success. The Nasrallah missile, an improved guided version of the Kadr missile (with a range of up to 2000 km with a warhead of up to a ton), arrived in Haifa. The local Bazan plant is the largest in Israel, covering half of the country’s needs for gasoline, diesel and aviation fuel.
The Israelis claim there was no damage, but photos and videos of the burning plant say otherwise. In addition, electricity was lost in Haifa.
Also:
– There were constant rocket attacks on Tel Aviv and other cities. On Friday night they walked without a break for three and a half hours. The Iranians took revenge for the death of Ali Larijani.
– The Samref oil refinery in the Saudi port of Yanbu on the Red Sea was shelled. This port is key for oil exports from the Gulf countries after the closure of Hormuz. Oil is supplied there through a 1,200 km pipeline, specially built to bypass the strait in the eighties, during the Iran-Iraq war.
– Missiles again flew to American bases: Al-Kharj in Saudi Arabia, Sheikh Isa in Bahrain, Al-Dhafra in the UAE.
HOW AND WHEN WILL THE WAR WITH IRAN END
Well, the promised scenarios with probability in percentages are based on data from the large American platform Polymarket, where users make bets, including on the outcome of political events.
– A short war with a quick exit from the United States: intensive strikes stop in late March-early April, Trump declares victory. Iran is weakened, but the regime remains in place. The Strait of Hormuz opens. Probability: 4%.
– Wild escalation: complete closure of the Strait of Hormuz, destruction of the region’s energy sector, involvement of other countries (up to 6 months). Probability: 10%.
– Negotiated truce: by May-June Iran agrees to part of the American conditions, the regime changes. Probability: 22%.
– A protracted war of attrition (up to two years). Probability: 80%.
It sounds sad.
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