Due to the concentration of hydrocarbon production in a small number of countries – mainly the United States, the Gulf and Russia – 75% of the world’s population (or more than 6 billion people) live in countries that depend on fossil fuel imports, according to a study published Wednesday March 18 .
These countries are most exposed when trade routes are disrupted or threatened.
- The main Asian economies – Japan, South Korea, but also the Philippines and Thailand – are very exposed to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz because it is through this bottleneck that 40% of their oil supplies pass.
- Unlike the energy crisis caused in 2022 by the large-scale Russian invasion of Ukraine, which mainly impacted Europe due to the suspension of gas transit from Russia, the crisis opened by the Israeli-American war against Iran is expected to mainly impact Asia.
- Net imports of fossil fuels represent 84% of Japan’s primary energy demand, 80% for South Korea and 55% for the Philippines.
If the main European economies – Italy, Spain and Germany in particular – are also very dependent on imports of fossil fuels, they have other sources of supply for their gas, such as Norway, the United States or Algeria. Only 3% of crude oil transiting Hormuz is destined for Europe, and 7% of its LNG imports in 2025 came from Qatar.
- In 2023, 62 countries in the world imported almost all of their oil, and 89 countries imported at least 80% (99% for Spain and Japan, 96% for Germany or 87% for India).
- When crises occur, these countries are the most impacted by rising energy prices, which exert considerable fiscal pressure on a global scale: for every $10 increase in the price of a barrel, net import costs increase by $160 billion per year.
- More than 90 countries, which account for 40% of the world’s population (around 3.3 billion people), devote more than 3% of their GDP to their imports of fossil fuels.
While China may be less exposed to rising energy prices, particularly because China’s strategic and commercial reserves total approximately 1.3 to 1.4 billion barrels, equivalent to 4 to 6 months of imports, the biggest threat posed by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz to Beijing is the destruction of demand.
- As Alicia García-Herrero explains, soaring energy and food costs could dampen consumption in Europe, the United States and emerging markets, which would significantly reduce orders for Chinese products.
The electrification of transportation in China saves Beijing $28 billion a year — which would otherwise be spent on oil imports — thanks to its electric vehicle fleet alone. Europe saves 8 billion dollars per year, and India 600 million.
- Globally, the adoption of electric vehicles has avoided the consumption of 2.3 million barrels of oil per day in 2025 .
While growth in electric car sales is expected to slow this year in China, Europe and the United States, war-induced fuel price hikes could reignite consumer interest.