Japan’s Earthquake and Volcanic Activity: A Growing Concern
The Recent Earthquake in Japan’s Nodeng Peninsula
On January 1, 2024, a powerful earthquake struck Japan’s Nodeng Peninsula, resulting in significant casualties in Ishikawa Prefecture. This event has reignited concerns about Japan’s seismic activity, which has been on the rise since the devastating 2011 East Japan Earthquake. The Japanese archipelago has entered what experts call the "era of earth changes," characterized by frequent earthquakes and volcanic eruptions.
The Three Major Natural Disasters in Japan
According to Hirohi Kamada, an honorary professor at Kyoto University, Japan faces three major natural disasters that require special attention. These disasters are ranked based on their potential impact, frequency, and the population and economic activities in the affected areas.
1. The Nankai Trough Earthquake
The Nankai Trough, stretching from Shizuoka Prefecture to the coasts of the Kii Peninsula, Shikoku, and Kyushu, is a major seismic zone. This area experiences a significant earthquake roughly every hundred years. Notable past earthquakes include the Honaga earthquake in 1707 and the Ansei Nankai earthquake in 1854. The most recent major earthquake in this region occurred in 1946.
Kamada predicts that the next significant earthquake in the Nankai Trough is likely to occur in the 2030s, with the highest probability within five years before and after 2035. The potential impact of such an earthquake is staggering, with an estimated death toll of 320,000 and economic losses up to 220 trillion yen. The Nankai Trough earthquake encompasses three main areas: the East China Sea earthquake off Shizuoka, the Southeast China Sea earthquake off Nagoya, and the South China Sea earthquake off Shikoku. An earthquake in one of these areas could trigger events in the others, as seen in the 1854 Ansei Nankai earthquake, which occurred 32 hours after the Southeast Sea earthquake.
2. Direct Earthquake in the Capital
The "Direct Earthquake in the Capital" refers to a strong 7.0 earthquake affecting Tokyo, Chiba, Saitama, and surrounding regions. The probability of such an earthquake occurring within 30 years is estimated at 70%. Plate movements and multiple faults in the region make this a significant concern.
Kamada highlights the northern part of Tokyo Bay as the most worrying area, with potential epicenters near the lower reaches of the Sumida River or Tsukishima in Chuo District. The primary concern is not just the shaking but the potential for widespread fires, especially in "wood-built residential areas." These fires could lead to a "fire tornado," exacerbating the disaster. Additionally, the aging infrastructure in the capital area poses a risk, as reduced government investment could leave buildings and bridges vulnerable to severe shaking.
3. Mount Fuji Eruption
Mount Fuji, Japan’s iconic volcano, is in a state of potential eruption at any time. The last eruption occurred after 200 years of dormancy, depositing 5 cm of volcanic ash in Edo town. Mount Fuji has now been dormant for 300 years, and if all accumulated magma is released, it could cause major disasters.
The next eruption may occur from a vent on the side of the mountain rather than the summit. If lava and volcanic ash are released on the Shizuoka Prefecture side, they could engulf the Shinkansen and expressways. Volcanic ash could paralyze the capital area’s infrastructure, affecting about 30 million people and causing economic losses of up to 2.5 trillion yen.
Preparing for the Future
Kamada emphasizes the importance of preparedness. He advises fixing furniture, storing food, water, and medicine, and choosing homes equipped with generators and emergency water supply systems. Being prepared can save lives and maintain normalcy during major disasters.
Key Information Summary
| Disaster Type | Potential Impact | Probability/Frequency | Affected Areas |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nankai Trough Earthquake | 320,000 deaths, 220 trillion yen loss | Every 100 years, next in 2030s | Shizuoka, Kii Peninsula, Shikoku, Kyushu |
| Direct Earthquake in Tokyo | 7.0 magnitude, potential fires | 70% within 30 years | Tokyo, Chiba, Saitama |
| Mount Fuji Eruption | 30 million people affected, 2.5 trillion yen loss | Any time | Shizuoka Prefecture, Tokyo |
FAQ Section
Q: What are the three major natural disasters in Japan?
A: The three major natural disasters in Japan are the Nankai Trough Earthquake, the Direct Earthquake in the Capital, and the Mount Fuji Eruption.
Q: When is the next significant earthquake in the Nankai Trough likely to occur?
A: The next significant earthquake in the Nankai Trough is likely to occur in the 2030s, with the highest probability within five years before and after 2035.
Q: What are the primary concerns during a Direct Earthquake in the Capital?
A: The primary concerns are the violent shaking and potential for widespread fires, which could lead to a "fire tornado."
Q: How can people prepare for these natural disasters?
A: People can prepare by securing furniture, storing essential supplies, and choosing homes equipped with generators and emergency water supply systems.
Did You Know?
Japan has one of the most advanced earthquake early warning systems in the world, which can provide crucial seconds of warning before shaking begins.
Pro Tips
- Emergency Kit: Always have an emergency kit ready with essentials like food, water, a first-aid kit, and flashlights.
- Home Safety: Secure heavy furniture and appliances to prevent them from toppling during an earthquake.
- Communication Plan: Establish a communication plan with your family to ensure everyone knows what to do in case of a disaster.
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