Credit Market Risk: Economic Uncertainty Impact

by Archynetys Economy Desk

This did not prevent their establishment from offering them a new rate, now presented as the “best” possible, at 3.15 %. The march crossed in September is not trivial for the couple, since it is able to increase their total cost of credit of almost 2,000 euros per tranche of 100,000 euros borrowed.

Towards a more expensive credit?

The case of Jérôme and Charlène is not isolated. The mortgage brokers have echoed since the start of the school year of rates decided by the banking establishments with which they work, ending the decrease movement started at the beginning of last year.

“Faced with economic uncertainty, mortgage rates are slightly increasing” up to 0.25 percentage points, wrote the co -founder of Artémis Courage, Ludovic Huzieux last week. A note from the Vousfinancer network specifies that a bank justified the revision upwards its rate scale by “political instability, social tensions and tension on the financial markets”.

French banking establishments are dependent on the loan rate in their country, since they borrow from markets at a close cost of part of the money they then lend to individuals and businesses. However, the cost of French debt, a few days before the announced fall of François Bayrou and the demotion of the note by the Fitch agency, reached historically high levels in early September.

What impact on purchases?

The average housing credit rate was located this summer just below 3.10 %, excluding insurance and additional costs, according to the latest available data from the Banque de France and the Crédit Housing Observatory. Asked about the subject on Wednesday at a press conference, the director general of housing credit, Jean-Marc Vilon, sees this rate go up to 3.25 %, even 3.30 %, by the end of the year.

“We are gradually going up to 3.5 % over 25 years with some differences depending on the region, according to the durations,” said Côme Robet, president of CNCEF, a professional association of brokers.

It is still too early to find out if the increase in credit will dissuade the candidates for the loan and stop the resumption of the total amount borrowed each month by households, noted by the Banque de France. The latest figures published at the start of last week, arrested at the end of July, do not yet illustrate this trend.

The confidence of banks and buyers at half mast

With 13.1 billion euros in new housing credits, excluding renegotiations, July is even the highest recorded in two and a half years. But the professionals contacted see it as a possible catch -up effect during the summer and fear a stop of this recovery. The banks “tighten the screw a little”, testifies Caroline Pasquereau, spokesperson for the broker in Loancrew borrowing credit, and ask these times to their “better files” intermediaries.

In addition to rates is added confidence at half mast from the French, less able to embark on long -term projects if they do not already have short -term economic visibility.

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