The Global Landscape of Taiwan’s International Support

In recent developments, the international community’s stance on Taiwan has become increasingly complex and contested. Following a meeting between U.S. President Donald Trump and Japanese Prime Minister Ishiba Shigeru, the two countries emphasized their opposition to any unilateral changes to the status quo regarding Taiwan. This stance is a significant step for the U.S., which has long sought to gather stronger international solidarity in support of the self-ruled island.

China’s Diplomatic Offensive

However, amidst this renewed commitment from the U.S., China has been swiftly gaining ground in the global diplomatic landscape. By The Economist’s count, 70 countries have now officially recognized China’s sovereignty over Taiwan, a move that carries profound implications. Importantly, these countries also endorse China’s right to pursue “all” efforts towards unification, without specifying that these efforts must be peaceful. Notably, the vast majority of these endorsements have come in the last 18 months, indicating a strategic diplomatic push from China, particularly within the Global South.

International Backing

These findings align with research from the Lowy Institute, an Australian think tank. The study reveals that by the end of 2023, 119 countries — comprising 62% of the UN’s member states — endorsed China’s claim of sovereignty over Taiwan. Among these, 89 countries also backed China’s unification efforts, with many supporting “all” such measures, though the study did not quantify this latter group or specify when they adopted the expansive language.

China’s Strategic Objectives

China’s recent diplomatic surge appears aimed at securing global support for its broader campaign of coercion against Taiwan. This includes the threat of a naval blockade, as demonstrated in military drills in October 2023, which simulated such a scenario. While a full-scale invasion does not seem imminent, U.S. officials suggest that Chinese President Xi Jinping has ordered his military to prepare for an invasion by 2027.

China’s actions are also intended to shield itself from potential Western sanctions in the event of a Taiwan crisis. By ensuring substantial international recognition of its position, China aims to make it challenging for sanctions or censure to be implemented through the UN. Furthermore, this could lead to lower global compliance with Western-led sanctions, similar to the situation after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

Global South’s Role

The 70 countries embracing China’s stance span various regions, including Asia, Europe, Africa, Oceania, and Latin America; 97%, including nations like South Africa, Egypt, and Pakistan, are part of the Global South. China’s influence in these regions continues to grow through its Belt and Road Initiative, despite declining overseas lending and financial difficulties faced by many developing nations at servicing Chinese loans.

Even traditionally neutral countries like Malaysia have shifted their positions. In a statement in June 2024, Malaysia recognized Taiwan as part of China to facilitate national reunification, moving away from previous calls for peaceful efforts.

Western Challenges

China’s diplomatic efforts pose significant challenges for the West. With many developing nations aligning with China, they could play a crucial role in determining the legitimacy of any Chinese action against Taiwan and Western responses, particularly within the UN. In contrast to 2022 when 141 of 193 UN member states supported a resolution demanding Russia’s withdrawal from Ukraine, the West may face a more formidable battle.

China’s Strategic Thinking

China’s diplomatic efforts appear intertwined with the war in Ukraine. As Russia faced diplomatic isolation, China aims to avoid a similar fate by ensuring its actions receive global support, particularly from oil-producing nations and transit routes. Ja Ian Chong of the National University of Singapore suggests that China’s approach also reflects its desire to appear legitimate.

According to Chong, China appears to have won over at least 68 more countries since February 2023, based on figures from the Lowy Institute and the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS).

Other Key Players

Among those adopting firmer language is Russia, which has become more reliant on Chinese imports following Western sanctions due to its invasion of Ukraine. However, while countries like North Korea and Serbia support all China’s unification efforts, Russia has hesitated, endorsing only initiatives towards unification.

Concerns and Countermoves

China’s claim of universal support may be exaggerated, and some foreign officials may be unaware of the nuances in the new wording. Meia Nouwens of the IISS links China’s efforts to its military focus on “three warfares” — psychological, public opinion, and legal — in preparing for a Taiwan conflict.

In response, several Western allies, including Japan, have become more vocal in criticising China’s military stance and supporting Taiwan’s participation in the UN. Much of Europe is also exploring ways to enhance deterrence and impose costs on China in the event of a conflict.

Interestingly, former President Donald Trump’s diplomatic influence cannot be underestimated. Panama, which shifted its recognition from Taiwan to China in 2017 as part of the Belt and Road scheme, withdrew from the initiative in February 2024 under Trump’s pressure and is now conducting audits of China-linked companies.

The Future Strategic Landscape

The international community’s dynamic over Taiwan remains in flux, with China’s diplomatic offensive potentially reshaping global perceptions. While the U.S. can take unilateral actions in response to a Chinese invasion or blockade, such as blocking Chinese shipping, it will need widespread support for imposing sanctions or gaining legitimacy for military interventions.

China’s strategic push, driven by a combination of international recognition and economic leverage, could create a challenge for the West to maintain global support. The battle for international legitimacy on Taiwan’s sovereignty and any future conflicts will undoubtedly be complex and multifaceted.

As the geopolitical landscape continues to evolve, the interplay between China, the United States, and developing nations will be crucial in shaping the future of Taiwan’s status.

Your Thoughts Matter

We encourage you to share your thoughts on this developing situation. Whether you are concerned about the potential for conflict or supportive of diplomatic efforts, your insights can contribute to a deeper understanding of this critical global issue.

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