The Australia-Japan-Korea Trilateral: A New Force in the Indo-Pacific
Amidst the dizzying array of acronyms and regional alliances in the Indo-Pacific, a new trilateral partnership between Australia, Japan, and South Korea is gaining traction. Despite the fatigue many feel from the proliferation of acronyms and coalitions, this trilateral shows promising signs of consolidation. Here’s a closer look at why and how this grouping may reshape regional dynamics.
The Origins of the Concept
The idea of an Australia-Japan-Korea trilateral has been around since at least 2014. It was first proposed during the Obama administration’s US rebalance to Asia. Hayley Channer suggested fostering security partnerships with these key allies as an effective strategy to protect Australia’s interests.
The Rise of Minilateralism
Since then, minilateralism has become increasingly prevalent in the Indo-Pacific. Sarah Teo explains that such groupings arise from the limitations of large-scale multilateralism and the intensifying competition between major powers. These alliances often target China implicitly or explicitly. For instance, joint statements from the 2023 US-Japan-South Korea summit and the 2024 US-Japan-Philippines summit both referenced Chinese behavior.
The Context of Trump’s Second Term
The push for an Australia-Japan-Korea trilateral has also been influenced by concerns over the possible return of a Trump administration and its unpredictable impact on the region. This has encouraged the formation of minilateral arrangements independent of US leadership.
Current Activities and Track 1.5 Dialogues
To understand this trilateral more deeply, one can examine the Track 1.5 dialogues—engagements involving both officials and non-officials—that have explored its potential. One such event was the United States Studies Centre’s inaugural Australia-Japan-South Korea trilateral dialogue in June 2024, co-sponsored by the Australia-Japan Foundation and the Australia-Korea Foundation. The event highlighted shared values among the three countries, including freedom, democracy, and adherence to a rules-based international order.
AJK share common values around freedom, democracy and the rules-based international order; they have numerous shared security interests; all are US treaty allies; and they all currently enjoy strong or improving bilateral relations.
However, the dialogue also recognized challenges, such as variable stances on China and occasional tensions in bilateral relationships, particularly between Japan and South Korea.
Strategic Similarities and Alignment
A key trend in recent dialogues is the emphasis on cooperation among like-minded states, extending beyond their individual relationships with the US. This was evident in a dialogue hosted by South Korea’s East Asia Institute, which initially addressed the possibility of an Indo-Pacific strategy without the US.
While each nation anticipated different implications of a Trump administration, they shared common strategic goals. As Siwook Lee from the Korea Institute for International Economic Policy noted, the nations are “like-positioned,” highlighting their strategic interests rather than merely ideological alignment.
Will This Trilateral Last?
The sustainability of the Australia-Japan-Korea trilateral is uncertain but promising. While the specific grouping may not endure as a formal entity, the benefits of their interaction and strategic alignment are significant.
One challenge lies in finding a suitable acronym—an AJK or KAJ doesn’t roll off the tongue easily. A more formal title like JASKA might fit better within the broader framework of minilateralism.
However, the real value may not be the grouping’s name or profile but the ongoing dialogue and cooperation among its members. This includes “establishing habits of cooperation,” focusing on “informal rather than institutionalized cooperation,” and “aligning national efforts.” For instance, as South Korea expands its engagement with Pacific Island countries, it can collaborate with Australia and Japan, who have extensive experience in the region.
The Future Role of the Trilateral
The ultimate goal is not simply creating another formal coalition but forming a strategic alignment that enhances regional stability and security. By keeping each other in mind, these nations can play a more pivotal role in navigating the challenges posed by a changing global landscape, particularly in response to potential US policy shifts.
This strategic alliance demonstrates how smaller groupings can effectively address regional issues and adjust strategies based on shared interests and positions.
Conclusion
The Australia-Japan-Korea trilateral represents a significant development in Indo-Pacific regional dynamics. While its future may be uncertain, the ongoing dialogue and strategic cooperation among these nations highlight the importance of tailored approaches to regional security and stability.
As these countries continue to align their efforts, they offer a resilient alternative to larger, potentially divisive multilateral bodies. Their strategic partnership underscores the adaptability and flexibility of regional cooperation in an era of shifting global alliances.
Melissa Conley Tyler FAIIA is the Executive Director of the Asia-Pacific Development, Diplomacy & Defence Dialogue (AP4D). She served as the National Executive Director of the Australian Institute of International Affairs from January 2006 to March 2019.
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