Incheon International Airport, Yonhap News
In the aftermath of the US-Iran war, airline ticket prices for Asia-Europe routes soared up to 560% this month. There are even predictions that the price rise will continue through this summer and fall due to the overlap of high oil prices and detour routes.
Bloomberg News reported on the 26th (local time), “As the aftermath of the energy supply chain disruption continues, this surge in ticket prices is expected to continue into this summer and fall.”
According to research firm Alton Aviation Consulting, the average ticket price for the Hong Kong-London route as of the 23rd was $3,318 (about 4.98 million won), a 560% increase compared to the previous month. The Bangkok-Frankfurt route also jumped 505% to an average of $2,870 (about 4.3 million won), and the so-called ‘kangaroo route’ between Sydney and London also rose 429% during the same period.
Flight reservations for June are also skyrocketing. June fares on seven popular routes from Asia-Pacific to Europe rose by an average of 70% compared to the same month last year. Among these, the average price for the Sydney-London route in June was $1,500 (about 2.25 million won), doubling in just one year. Bloomberg News reported that June flights from Europe to Asia also rose by up to 79% in a year, with some routes seeing their prices more than triple.
Brian Terry, director of Alton Aviation, explained, “Even if the Iran war ends early, it will take up to three months for the price drop to be reflected in the aviation fuel supply chain,” adding, “The increase in flight time due to detour routes, shortage of supply seats, and high oil prices will all combine to keep upward pressure on prices for a considerable period of time.” In fact, Olton Aviation predicted that prices for Asia-Europe routes will remain more than 30% higher than the previous year until October at most.
Domestic air ticket prices are also taking a direct hit. Starting in April, Korean Air raised the fuel surcharge for international flights from a minimum of 42,000 won to a maximum of 303,000 won per one-way. Compared to the minimum of 13,500 won and the maximum of 99,000 won in March, the long-distance route surcharge has soared by more than 200,000 won in just one month.
Oxford Economics presented a scenario in which the two-month average of international oil prices could rise to $140 per barrel if the war in the Middle East prolongs. In this case, it is predicted that the fuel surcharge could exceed level 22, which was the highest ever during the Russo-U.S. war in 2022.
There is speculation in the industry that if the conflict in the Middle East prolongs, fuel surcharges may rise again in May, when a special Golden Week holiday is expected. Some predict that if the exchange rate rise and strong oil prices continue, a slowdown in demand for long-distance travel is inevitable.
A travel industry official said, “Fuel surcharges are likely to remain at a high level after April. If you are planning a summer vacation, advancing the ticket issuance time is a realistic way to reduce the cost burden.”