Galaxy Digital has revised downwards its estimate for the price of bitcoin at the end of 2025, cutting its forecast from $185,000 initially raised to a more prudent figure of $120,000. As explained Alex Thornhead of research at the digital asset firm, the adjustment responds to changes in “cyclical market dynamics,” although he stressed that, from a structural point of view, bitcoin maintains its fundamental strength.
The revision comes after October closed as the first negative month for bitcoin in several years, which has led various analysts to moderate their short-term expectations despite general optimism about the bullish cycle of 2025.
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Galaxy reduces bitcoin price target to $120,000
In his initial prediction, set at $185,000 by the end of 2025, Thorn anchored his thesis primarily on the push for institutional money, combined with adoption by corporate treasuries and validation by governments. Although this scenario has been seen throughout the year, where the institutional engine and exchange-traded funds (ETFs) have played a key role in the cryptocurrency’s all-time highs, recent market dynamics and multiple factors are leading Thorn to lower its expectations for the BTC price by the end of the year.
In this sense, the readjustment to $120,000 recognizes that, although the fundamental investment structure in bitcoin remains solid, the dynamics of the cycle have evolved, the analyst explains in a note for clients, shared by himself on X (formerly Twitter). Part of this scenario includes a strong distribution by large holders (“whales”), a rotation towards competing narratives such as artificial intelligence (AI), gold and stablecoins, and a poor performance of companies with treasury in BTC, says Thorn, who also added the influence of the massive liquidations of last October 10.
As a result of these factors, bitcoin is entering a new phase that the analyst describes as “the era of maturity,” where “institutional adoption, profit-taking flows, and lower volatility predominate,” he adds. In this way, if bitcoin manages to maintain $100,000 as a key price, Galaxy considers that a resumption of the upward trend is possible, although with a slower rate of gains.
Keys and new dynamics
In his analysis, Thorn also shared a series of key factors that are part of this changing scenario and the new dynamics of bitcoin. In this sense, he points out that the distribution of large old holders towards ETFs and new institutional buyers indicates maturity, but has also put pressure on prices.
Additionally, Thorn mentions that bitcoin competes for attention and capital with other powerful macroeconomic narratives, such as AI, gold, and Big Tech stocks. Added to this is a certain apathy from the retail investor, who has not returned with the strength of 2021 and whose recent interest has been attracted more by the short-term speculation of “memecoins” than by the long-term value proposition of BTC, adds the Galaxy research leader.
Finally, the expected adoption of bitcoin as a strategic reserve asset by governments remains an unfulfilled promise, Thorn notes, adding that during the new phase the next wave of companies with BTC treasury will primarily need “sustainable revenue and business models before accumulating reserves from free cash flow.”
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First negative October in years
The renewed prediction from Galaxy comes after an unusually bearish October for bitcoin, as it is historically a month of strong performance for BTC, earning it the nickname “Uptober.” However, this upward trend was broken this year, thus breaking a streak of seven positive years, closing with a drop of almost 4%.
The month began with bullish momentum that took bitcoin to a new all-time high price above $126,000 in the first week, according to data from CoinGecko. However, the market was shaken on October 10 by one of the largest liquidations of leveraged positions in its history, with estimates exceeding $19 billion, as a result of geopolitical tensions between the United States and China. This event, also cited by Thorn as part of recent market changes, caused a price drop from which BTC and the crypto market have yet to recover.
Currently, the price of bitcoin remains above $104,000, representing a drop of over 17% from its peak in early October. However, Galaxy’s final prediction considers that BTC will once again recover levels close to its most recent peak, although without enough momentum to break towards a new record before the end of the year. Everything will depend on the result of the month of November; that of 2024 closed with a 37% increase in the price of bitcoin, so in the event of a similar performance, it would mark a new high for BTC before the end of the year.
