With a career of more than two decades in the asset management industry, Matthew Beesley has a privileged position to observe the money movements that were triggered after the tariff earthquake presented by Donald trump on April 2. In an interview conducted five days prior in Lisbon, on the occasion of the global conferences of the British firm Jupiter Asset Management, the CEO of the manager points to a rebirth of active management to overcome the uncertainty surroundings that dominates the market due to the Trump governance.

Ask. The popularity of passive management has brought lower costs for active management competitors. What are the main challenges facing the industry and how is Jupiter preparing?

Answer. It is indeed true that it has been a complex environment for active management. In recent years, there has been an excess of liquidity in the markets that has promoted the assessment of indiscriminate assets. That is, what has moved to the market is the general direction, more than the active selection of values. But that is changing. Excess liquidity is being withdrawn. In addition, the world economic order established after the financial crisis is being questioned. The global economy has been excessively concentrated in US assets. Today, that model is being challenged and that opens a new context, more volatile, where active management makes sense again. It is a time to recover prominence.

P. How have the portfolios reconfigured before this new volatility after the so-called “day of liberation”?

R. Our clients are increasingly concerned about their exposure to the US market. In recent months, we have detected two great trends: the perception that they are overexposed to the united States and a growing restlessness before the dependence of US policies.The US now has a political environment that generates uncertainty deliberately, and that leads investors to seek more diversification. Many are moving capital out or at least starting to consider it. It is a structural change that probably extends for years.More interest is also observed in liquid alternative products as a way to mitigate uncertainty.

P. We have seen capital flows from the US to European assets. Are we facing a real turning point for European variable income or is it just a timely market reaction?

R. It is indeed soon to affirm it with certainty, but I have the intuition that in five years we will see this moment as a turning point. The US has clearly shown that he is willing to impose his authority on the rest of the world, and that change will not be easily forgotten.I do not think it is indeed only a rotation towards Europe, but towards non-American assets in general. Europe, of course, is among them. european assessments have been discounted in front of those of the United States for a long time, and although part of that difference is explained by lower margins, the current differential is excessive. So, I think this marks a structural change.

P. What geographical regions today offer the most attractive opportunities?

R. In addition to Europe, the United Kingdom deserves special attention. It is true that I am the CEO of a British manager, but the data supports him, the British actions are even cheaper than the continental Europeans. The British market has one more bias towards the old economy, but the political environment is stable, the economy has been resilient and the valuations are very attractive. It truly seems to me a clear possibility.

P. Do Trump’s economic policies mark the end of American exceptionalism?

R. The idea of ​​American exceptionalism was built on the basis of a country that offered growth in a stagnant world. That was possible thanks to expansive fiscal and monetary policies and innovation. Today, it has a debt of 39 billion dollars and annual interests that amount to 8 billion. Trump talks about new fiscal discounts that would only worse that burden. Investors are already showing doubts. Nobody wants to finance that debt as before. And all that, together with high interest rates and its effect on consumption, raises doubts about the sustainability of growth. The US market has been dominated by a small group of companies, the seven splendid, but that is coming to an end.

P. Even so, the market continues to rise.

R. It may seem, but the reality is that so far this year, the US has lagged behind. Emerging markets rise 10%, Europe 15% and Wall Street just 2% or 3%. So, the facts indicate that capital is already starting to migrate. Trump has introduced a level of uncertainty that makes countries, companies and investors want to depend less on the US. Either for defense, production or consumption, today there are more doubts than ever.

P. What do you think is the greatest risk for the second half of the year?

R. The great uncertainty we live. American markets are not cheap at all and many ancient relationships are being tested. We live in an environment where there is growth, even if it is not very high. Consumers and companies have relatively solid balances and there is not so much indebtedness in the world. Inflation seems to be under control in many countries, we are even seeing interest rates in several regions. All of that generates a relatively stable context,although of low growth. But the world looks closely at extreme risks. I am not nervous with respect to market levels for variable income or fixed income, but I see an increase in potential risks.

P. After the so-called “day of liberation”, there was a significant increase in gold prices. What role do these assets play for Jupiter?

R. In a world where markets can change according to the opinions of a single person, customers seek to diversify beyond traditional assets. Our variable income teams will tell you that in one in five years, the classic 60-40 portfolio loses money. That is why we believe that, in addition to variable income and fixed income, alternative strategies have an importent role. In Jupiter we focus on a small group of liquid alternative strategies, such as our gold and silver fund. This background combines exposure to gold and physical silver, as well as the miners that extract these metals. This allows to balance risks and achieve a more efficient portfolio. And this year, while the actions rise in moderation, gold has risen substantially, offering a good source of diversification.

P. Do you consider including other types of assets such as those linked to the real estate sector,for example?

R. We could do it,we are open. What is clear to us is that everything we do must be active management and have a differentiating component. There are many things that we do not do today, but we have been adding investment teams to our business and we continue looking for opportunities to incorporate more strategies, provided they are active and different.

P. In Jupiter AM they have developed an active management ETF. Could you explain how it works and what kind of assets will use?

R. We are in the first steps of the development of an active ETF strategy. We have already launched one and I think we will launch another later this year. What we know is that customers more and more want to access our investment ideas in different ways. Some ask us to manage model wallets for them, others want personalized funds. Active ETFs are simply another structure, which some customers prefer because it is more immediate, they can buy or sell during the day unlike the funds. That is why we are open to innovate, knowing that the change of format can be advantageous for our customers.

P. You have talked about mergers as a way to increase assets under management and improve cost synergies. Is Jupiter looking for acquisition opportunities?

R. We are open. Fortunately, we have a lot of room to grow with what we already do, so any acquisition will be by choice, not for necessity. I have talked about possible mergers and acquisitions during the last two years, and we have only done a small operation, which shows that we are careful and reflective. But inorganic growth can provide new investment capabilities and make better use our infrastructure, which is positive as a quoted company.

P. Is there any segment or innovation that you would like to add and that you still don’t have?

R. This year, in addition to the active ETF we launched, we have also launched a more volatile and greater return version of our global absolute return fund structured in the Cayman Islands, something that our clients had requested us. We have invested a lot of time and money in innovating customer experience,from infrastructure to how we digitize the entire investment process. And looking to the future, we are open to explore new opportunities.