Despite slow hiring in “white collar” jobs, economists argue that artificial intelligence is not the main cause, at least for now. The professional and business services sector, which includes educated, middle and upper-class workers, has seen limited hiring growth in the past couple of years.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that job growth in professional and business services decreased by -0.4% in May, a slight dip from -0.2% in april. Cory Stahle, an economist at Indeed, notes that this indicates a loss of job opportunities in the sector. Meanwhile, industries such as health care, construction, and manufacturing have experienced more job creation. Health care, for example, added 62,000 jobs in May, accounting for nearly half of the total job growth.

However, economists suggest that structural economic issues, rather than AI, are primarily responsible for the decline in white-collar job openings.

“we know for a fact that it’s not AI,” said Alí Bustamante, an economist and director at the Roosevelt Institute.

Indeed’s Stahle concurred, stating, “This is more of an economic story and less of an AI disruption story, at least so far.”

Economists cite several reasons why AI is not yet a major factor in the declining job creation in white-collar sectors.

alí Bustamante points out that the decline in job creation has been ongoing for years, a period when AI technology “was pretty awful.”

Cory Stahle adds that the technology is still in its early stages, requiring human intervention to execute key skills effectively.

A 2024 report by Indeed researchers found that none of the 2,800+ work skills analyzed were “very likely” to be replaced by generative AI, which creates content like text or images from existing data.

The report categorized the likelihood of AI replacement into five scenarios: “very unlikely,” “unlikely,” “possible,” “likely,” and “very likely.” Approximately 68.7% of skills fell into the “very unlikely” or “unlikely” categories.

“We might get to a point where they do, but right now, that’s not necessarily looking like it’s a big factor,” Stahle said.

While AI has not yet replaced human workers,the technology may eventually disrupt the labor force.

“Certainly, jobs are going to transform,” Stahle said. “I’m not going to downplay the potential impacts of AI.”

Stahle noted an increase in consulting job openings focused on implementing generative AI. According to a February report by Indeed, management consulting roles with AI language accounted for 12.4% of GenAI postings, indicating growing demand.

A report by the World Economic Forum in January projects that AI will create 170 million new jobs by 2030, representing 14% of current total employment.

However, the report also suggests that approximately 92 million jobs, or 8% of the current total employment, could be displaced by AI technology.

Cory Stahle advises knowledge-based workers to invest in developing skills in using AI technology to stay competitive.