The Specter of Neo-Imperialism: A 21st-Century Threat?

The global order appears to be at a crossroads, with some experts suggesting a potential return to neo-imperialism. This concept, characterized by powerful nations exerting influence, and even control, over weaker ones, raises critical questions about the future of international relations. Bruno Tertrais, a noted French geopolitologist and Deputy Director at the Fondation Pour la Recherche Stratégique (FRS), posits that we may be entering an era dominated by predator states.

Tertrais suggests these predator states operate under a principle reminiscent of the Soviet era: What is mine is mine. What is yours is negotiable. This approach challenges established international norms and raises concerns about the sovereignty of nations.

Trump’s America: A Potential neo-Imperialist Power?

The role of the United States, particularly under its former leadership, is central to this discussion. Tertrais draws a parallel between former President Trump and Joseph Stalin, recounting a story where Stalin questioned the existence of an independent Sri Lanka. This anecdote highlights a mindset that challenges the legitimacy of sovereign states.

However, Tertrais remains cautious in definitively labeling Trump as a neo-imperialist. Despite Trump’s rhetoric and actions,such as questioning borders and expressing interest in acquiring territories like Greenland,Tertrais notes that many of these pronouncements have not translated into concrete,irreversible policy changes.

For me, the big question now is whether the United States, together with Russia and China, will be among the great imperialist predator states of the 21st century.

Bruno Tertrais, Fondation Pour la Recherche Stratégique

The Enigma of Trump’s Foreign Policy

A key question is whether Trump’s seemingly preferential treatment of autocratic leaders like Xi Jinping and Vladimir Putin indicates a shift in american foreign policy. While Trump has been critical of allies, he has also imposed tariffs on China and threatened sanctions against Russia, creating a complex and frequently enough contradictory picture.

Tertrais believes that Trump’s primary motivation is his own ego and legacy. He suggests that Trump’s ultimate goal may be to secure a nobel Peace Prize, even if it means pursuing unconventional or controversial paths to peace. This ambition, coupled with his view of war as bad for business, shapes his approach to international relations.

Trump wants to surpass Obama, by founding peace somewhere, or what goes for it.Doesn’t matter how.

Europe in the Crosshairs: A Target for Disruption?

Trump’s criticism of the European Union, including his claim that it was established to screw the US, raises concerns about the future of transatlantic relations.Tertrais argues that Europe is an easy target, particularly given its reliance on the United States for military support. Trump has consistently criticized European nations for their defense spending, adding strain to the alliance.

Some observers have drawn parallels between Trump’s treatment of allies and Putin’s actions in the Caucasus,suggesting a shared approach of colonial exploitation. Both leaders are seen as asserting their influence within their respective spheres of influence, often employing coercive tactics.

The Shifting Sands of Global Power: Echoes of the 19th Century?

The current geopolitical landscape evokes comparisons to the 19th century,a period marked by intense rivalry among European powers.However, Tertrais argues that there are crucial differences. Increased interdependence through trade and cooperation, coupled with the existence of nuclear weapons, acts as a deterrent against large-scale conflict.

The very concept of the West is also being questioned. Tertrais suggests that Trump does not view the West as a cohesive entity or a lever to enhance American power, unlike his predecessor, Biden, who saw NATO as a tool for American leadership.

Navigating Uncertainty: Europe’s Response

Faced with an unpredictable American foreign policy, Europe must adopt a nuanced approach. Tertrais suggests selective engagement,cooperating on issues like defense while resisting on matters such as trade tariffs and digital regulation. He emphasizes the need for Europe to strengthen its own capabilities and assert its independence.

France,with its long-standing emphasis on strategic autonomy,is seen as well-prepared for this new reality. President Macron’s call for greater European sovereignty and his critique of NATO have resonated with many Europeans,prompting a reassessment of the continent’s role in the world.

Europe has to scale up considerably, there is nothing else on it. Everyone understands that now.

A Catalyst for Integration?

Paradoxically, Trump’s actions may be inadvertently strengthening European integration.A sense of shared vulnerability is fostering a sense of European patriotism, mirroring similar trends in Canada and Mexico. Even traditionally Eurosceptic voices are being forced to re-evaluate their positions.

The perception that both Russia and the United States are undermining Europe is driving a desire for greater unity and resilience. As Tertrais observes, If two great powers want to undermine us, we will only continue to stand when we do it together.

Eurosceptics who shouted for a long time that the EU was founded by the CIA are now fully confused.