The Impact of Robert F. Kennedy Jr.’s Tenure on U.S. Vaccination Rates
Robert F. Kennedy Jr., a prominent vaccine skeptic, was sworn in as the secretary of Health and Human Services (HHS) on February 13, 2025. His appointment has raised significant concerns among health policy experts, who fear that his views and actions could further erode already declining U.S. vaccination rates.
The Immediate Concerns
Kennedy’s early moves as HHS Secretary have alarmed health experts. He has announced plans to review the childhood vaccination schedule and reportedly intends to remove and replace members of external committees that advise the government on vaccine approvals and public health decisions. This could lead to bogus recommendations that highlight the harms rather than the benefits of vaccines, potentially influencing governors, legislatures, and school boards to adopt policies that reduce childhood immunizations.
Experts warn that if vaccination rates drop even further, there could be major consequences, including renewed outbreaks of vaccine-preventable illnesses in certain communities. Lawrence Gostin, professor of public health law at Georgetown University, predicts that within the next couple of years, we could see major drops in childhood vaccination rates. “He has all the powers he needs to sow public distrust in vaccines. He has a history of doing that and he has a desire to do it,” Gostin said.
The Political Divide
The politicization of the pandemic has fueled more doubts about vaccinations, creating a partisan divide on the public’s acceptance of them. Social media and public figures have amplified misinformation about vaccines, with some falsehoods about COVID-19 shots spilling over to other types of vaccinations. A Gallup survey found that in 2024, 63% of Democrats considered childhood vaccinations “extremely important,” compared to just 26% of Republicans. This division has deepened over recent years, with political ideologies driving vaccine policy in certain areas of the country and having a clear downstream impact on vaccination levels. red states that President Trump carried in the 2024 election.
The Declining Trend
Childhood vaccination rates have been relatively steady for nearly a decade before the COVID-19 pandemic, with about 95% of kindergarten children up to date with all state-required vaccines. However, since the pandemic, the share of kindergarten children who are up to date on their vaccinations has dropped to less than 93%. Exemptions from school vaccination requirements, particularly non-medical exemptions, have also increased, rising from 2.5% in the 2019-2020 school year to 3.3% in the 2023-2024 school year. This increase was driven by non-medical exemptions, such as religious or personal belief reasons. This decline in vaccination rates appears consistent with the public’s perception of childhood immunizations, with only 40% of Americans considering childhood vaccines extremely important, down from 58% in 2019 and 64% in 2001.
Did you know? Vaccine hesitancy and the anti-vaccine movement have been intertwined with political, moral, and spiritual ideas around the rights of an individual versus the community, the limits of government power over bodily autonomy, mistrust of medical institutions, and misinformation about shot safety and efficacy.
State-by-State Disparities
Over three-quarters of U.S. states (39) had vaccination rates for the MMR shot below the “Healthy People 2030” target rate of 95% during the 2023-2024 school year. This means that roughly 280,000 school children were unvaccinated and unprotected against measles. MMR vaccination rates among kindergarteners vary widely across states, ranging from a low of around 80% in Idaho to a high of more than 98% in West Virginia. Clusters of unvaccinated people within specific communities increase the risk of disease outbreaks, as seen in the recent measles outbreak in Texas, where a child who wasn’t vaccinated died, the first U.S. death from the disease since 2015.
Potential Future Trends
Kennedy’s actions and policies could have far-reaching implications for public health. Here are some key trends to watch:
Vaccine Advisory Panels
Kennedy could target vaccine advisory panels, removing members whom he perceives to have “conflicts of interest.” This could produce bogus recommendations that highlight the harms rather than the benefits of shots. The advisory committees’ recommendations could influence governors, legislatures, and school boards in red states, potentially reducing childhood immunization rates. Massive State and local governments may need to expand their efforts to advocate for vaccinations and make up for lost ground.
Data Manipulation
Kennedy could cherry-pick data, studies, and other information about vaccines to create the misleading impression that shots aren’t safe and cause severe side effects. He has indicated a desire to “restore the transparency” around vaccine safety data, but experts view this as another “code word” for highlighting dubious scientific studies. This could further undermine public trust in vaccines
Informed Consent and Legal Protections
Kennedy is reportedly shelving promotions for a variety of shots, including a campaign touting seasonal flu jabs. He has pushed for CDC advertisements to promote the idea of “informed consent” in vaccine decision-making. While informed consent is important, shifting the focus more on potential risks could undermine people’s willingness to get vaccinated.
Kennedy could also undermine legal protections for vaccine makers. The HHS’ National Vaccine Injury Compensation Program currently pays patients injured by standard childhood vaccines and shields drugmakers from litigation. As HHS secretary, Kennedy can remove or add to the list of vaccines and injuries included and covered by that program, potentially spurring a wave of litigation over alleged injuries from the shots.
| Metric | 2019-2020 | 2023-2024 |
|---|---|---|
| Percentage of Kindergarteners Fully Vaccinated | 95% | <93% |
| Percent with Non-Medical Exemptions | 2.5% | 3.3% |
| Percentage of Americans Considering Vaccines ‘Extremely Important’ | 58% | 40% |
FAQs
What are the immediate concerns regarding Kennedy’s appointment?
Kennedy’s plans to review the childhood vaccination schedule and replace members of external committees that advise the government on vaccine approvals and public health decisions have raised concerns among health experts. These actions could lead to bogus recommendations that highlight the harms rather than the benefits of vaccines, potentially influencing governors, legislatures, and school boards to adopt policies that reduce childhood immunizations.
How has the pandemic affected vaccination rates?
The pandemic has led to a decline in childhood vaccination rates, with only 93% of kindergarteners up to date on their vaccinations in the 2023-2024 school year, down from 95% before the pandemic. The pandemic has also fueled more doubts about vaccinations, creating a partisan divide on the public’s acceptance of them.
What are the potential future trends regarding vaccination rates?
Kennedy’s actions and policies could lead to further declines in vaccination rates, increased exemptions, and greater distrust in vaccines. He could also target vaccine advisory panels, cherry-pick data, and undermine legal protections for vaccine makers, all of which could have far-reaching implications for public health.
What can state and local governments do to mitigate these trends?
State and local governments may need to expand their efforts to advocate for vaccinations and make up for lost ground. They can implement policies and practices that drive higher vaccination rates and counteract the potential negative impacts of Kennedy’s policies.
Pro Tips
Proactive communication and education campaigns can build trust among communities. By staying informed and actively promoting vaccination, local communities can fight against vaccine misinformation and promote healthier communities for all. Parents on both sides of the political spectrum are eager to learn more, thus making this a universal topic and non-political
Stay Informed
Read more in-depth analysis of these trends in future articles. What are your thoughts on these trends? Share your insights in the comments below. Subscribe to our newsletter to stay informed about the latest developments in public health.