In a post on Truth Social on Monday afternoon, Trump writes that he has had “very good and productive conversations with Iran”.
That contrasts with the president’s earlier message, in which he gave Iranian authorities 48 hours to open the Strait of Hormuz or have Iran’s energy infrastructure destroyed.
The conflicting messages have caused fluctuations on the stock exchanges on Monday.
It is also uncertain whether the conversations Trump writes about actually took place. Iranian media, citing the country’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs, deny that talks have taken place between the US and Iran. At the same time, Reuters refers to anonymous sources in Israel who say that there have been talks.
There is a lot going on. In this article you can read about these latest developments:
Plunge in oil prices
Trump’s retreat has already had consequences for oil prices, which have fallen sharply.
On Monday morning, the oil price was around 113 dollars a barrel. After Trump’s retreat, however, it fell sharply to a preliminary low of $96 a barrel, before recovering somewhat.
This has also had consequences for the Norwegian krone, which has weakened significantly throughout the day.
– Now the outlook for the markets has improved, says Chief Economist Harald Magnus Andreassen at Sparebank 1 Markets to NRK.
He explains that the changes we have seen today only happen on very special occasions.
– Of course it’s madness anyway. And that makes the markets completely unpredictable.
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Harald Magnus Andreassen
Chief economist at Sparebank1 Markets.
Conversations behind the scenes
Middle East expert Eirik Kvindesland refers to Trump’s counter-message on Monday afternoon as a “major event”.
– It is possibly a breakthrough. Here, there have clearly been conversations behind the scenes that we have not known about, he says to NRK.
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Eirik Kvindesland
- Middle East historian and postdoctoral fellow at the Department of Iran Studies at the Austrian Academy of Sciences
- Author of the book Iran and Israel: Old friends, new enemies (2025)
Trump’s threat to attack Iran within 48 hours caused global unrest.
When Axios wrote that the US was also considering occupying the Iranian island of Kharg, the Iranian Defense Council threatened to mine the Persian Gulf.
Kharg is important for Iranian oil production.
Foto: – / EUROPEAN SPACE AGENCY,NTB
The threats from both parties have been credible, Kvindesland believes. He believes there may be a reason why Trump is now pulling the brakes:
– He has probably been pressured quite hard by allies. Probably the Arab Gulf states, and certainly others. Now this is so serious and catastrophic that it risks not only Trump’s own presidency, but also the entire world economy, he says.
The Middle East expert believes there are still many rocks in the sea for a possible diplomatic solution.
– So far we do not know whether these talks have actually taken place, or whether this is Trump throwing in the towel on his own.
The world economy in danger
The entire world’s economy is in great danger due to the energy crisis in the Middle East, warns the head of the International Energy Agency (IEA), Fatih Birol.
The war in the region is causing major problems for the energy supply, especially around the Strait of Hormuz.
Smoke and flames at the South Pars gas field after an Israeli attack. The video has been shared on social media. The news agency Reuters has geolocated the video. They have not found the video published online before March 18.
Birol says that no country will escape the consequences if the crisis continues.
– The world economy is facing a very big threat today, Birol said during a meeting in Australia on Monday, according to the AFP news agency.
He believes that a joint effort from all over the world is now needed to resolve the situation as quickly as possible.
Norwegian Prime Minister Jonas Gahr Støre (Ap) agrees with the IEA chief.
– Further escalation could have serious consequences for the world economy, Støre told NRK earlier on Monday.
– The responsible managers must now think thoroughly about the responsibility they have.
Prime Minister Jonas Gahr Støre (Ap) is concerned about what the conflict in the Middle East could mean for the world economy. Photographed here on a previous occasion.
Photo: Truls Skram Lerø / NRK
Several energy plants damaged
Birol also states that at least 40 important energy facilities have been “severely damaged” as a result of the war in the Middle East.
The damage affects the production and transport of energy in the region. The announcement comes at the same time that Israel has confirmed extensive airstrikes against Iranian infrastructure.
Iranian missiles over the Israeli port city of Netanya March 23.
Photo: JACK GUEZ / AFP,NTB
– There is no doubt that it will be a shock to the world economy if large quantities of all available crude oil in the world disappear, plus liquid natural gas, fertiliser, aluminum and other products from the Gulf, said economist Andreassen earlier on Monday.
According to him, the consequence will be that industries that use oil will have to reduce their activity.
– We have not had such a situation before. It’s dramatic.
Strait of Hormuz
What is the Strait of Hormuz and where is it located? The Strait of Hormuz is one of the world’s most important shipping routes for the transport of oil.
The strait runs between Iran and Oman, and divides the Persian Gulf from the rest of the Arabian Sea.
A fifth of the world’s oil and gas is transported through the strait, which is just under five miles wide at its narrowest point.
By 2025, around 20 million barrels of oil were transported through the Strait of Hormuz every day, according to the US Department of Energy. This corresponds to energy trade worth close to 600 billion dollars a year.
The oil comes not only from Iran, but also from Iraq, Kuwait, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates.
Why is the Strait of Hormuz important in the war between the US, Israel and Iran? – The Strait of Hormuz is one of the places where it is easiest for Iran to influence militarily and which has a major effect on the world economy, which in turn can affect the US by creating unrest in the world markets, says Kyrre Tromm Lindvig.
He is the main teacher at the section for strategy and joint operations at the Norwegian Defense Academy.
Shortly after the US and Israel attacked Iran, Iran threatened to “close” the Strait of Hormuz and set fire to any ships that attempted to pass through.
US President Donald Trump has warned that Washington will hit back even harder if Iran blocks oil exports.
Why is there an attack in the Strait of Hormuz now? Lindvig explains that Iran has lost much of its ability to attack with advanced missiles, which were previously used against targets in the Gulf states, the United States and Israel.
– With the Strait of Hormuz, Iran can still influence militarily in a very effective way with relatively simple means, such as drones, small boats and mines, says Lindvig.
Iran believes that all American or Israeli ships, or ships carrying oil for the two countries, are legitimate targets.
So far, at least 14 attacks against ships in the Strait of Hormuz have been reported in the last two weeks.
On Wednesday, cargo ships sailing under the flags of Thailand, Japan and the Marshall Islands were attacked.
The Iranian Revolutionary Guard admits to having been behind the attack on the Thai ship.
What is the consequence of closing the Strait of Hormuz? Since the start of the war, virtually all ship traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has been on pause.
This causes the transport of oil and gas to be stopped.
When traffic is disrupted, oil and gas prices jump sharply, which in turn has a major effect on the world’s stock markets, explains Lundvig.
The analysis agency Wood Mackenzie expects oil prices of $150 a barrel in the coming weeks, assuming the Strait of Hormuz remains closed. They also warn that the price may rise to 200 dollars per barrel during 2026. Before the war, prices were around 70 dollars per barrel.
In addition, several producers have to reduce production because their warehouses fill up when exports stop, explains Lindvig.
Iraq, Qatar and Kuwait are some of the countries that have decided to reduce the production of oil and gas.
If the situation in the Strait of Hormuz persists, there will be 20 percent less oil and gas in the world than we are used to.
Asia and Europe are the most vulnerable regions to supply disruptions, and are more dependent on imports of crude oil, gas and fuel from the Middle East than other parts of the world.
Trump threatened to attack
On the night of Sunday, Trump published that message on Truth Social with a warning that the US would attack Iran’s largest power plant within two days, if the country did not open the Strait of Hormuz.
– If Iran does not open up the Strait of Hormuz completely, without any threats, within 48 hours from this exact time, the US is going to attack and wipe out their various power plants, and the biggest one will be first. Thank you for your attention, the president then wrote.
The deadline was supposed to expire at 01:44 on Tuesday 24 March, but this attack will now be put on hold for five days, according to the president himself.
QatarEnergy reports extensive damage following a new Iranian missile attack on the Ras Laffan gas plant. The video has been shared by the news agency Agence France Press (AFP).
Iranian military authorities also made their own threat against Trump.
If Iran’s fuel and energy infrastructure is attacked, all energy infrastructure belonging to the United States in the region will be the target of Iranian attacks, said a statement carried by Iranian media. Iran threatened to hit both energy and desalination plants in the region.
Later they said that Iran will cooperate with IMO to partially reopen the Strait of Hormuz and protect seafarers in the Persian Gulf.
The map shows the Strait of Hormuz.
Photo: N638722
Strong stock market fall
Trump’s threat of more attacks had consequences for world stock markets on Monday morning. There was, among other things, a sharp fall at several of the Asian exchanges.
The trading day ended with a fall of almost 3.5 percent on the Nikkei index in Tokyo, while the broader Topix index ended down 3.4 percent.
In Seoul in South Korea, the Kospi index fell by as much as 6.5 percent, according to NTB, while the Hang Seng index in Hong Kong closed down 3.5 percent and the main index in Shanghai fell 3.6 percent.
In South Korea, the stock market falls sharply.
Photo: JUNG YEON-JE / AFP,NTB
Oslo Børs also has a tough trading day and opened down 1.3 per cent just after opening hours. Although the European stock markets have recovered somewhat during the afternoon, there are still red numbers in Oslo.
– Norway profits from the war, which is why the Oslo Stock Exchange goes up when oil prices are high. The war is not good for the Norwegian economy and business, but Norway has more companies that profit from rising oil prices than other countries, says economist Andreassen.
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Published
23.03.2026, kl. 06.20
Updated
23.03.2026, kl. 17.34
