Of all the applicant states, Montenegro is currently the closest to becoming the 28th member of the European Union. At least in terms of the closed chapters of the accession process, of which the Balkan state has completed 13 out of a total of 33. The government in Podgorica itself aims to become an EU state by 2028, while the European Commission perceives this goal as realistic.
However, as the news server Politico points out, in recent years there have been concerns in the EU structures regarding the further expansion of the bloc. They are mainly driven by how Hungary, led by Prime Minister Viktor Orbán, has been “blackmailing” EU states in recent years in matters of foreign policy.
Specifically, for example, most recently at the end of February this year, when Hungary together with Slovakia blocked the twentieth package of EU sanctions against Russia. Orbán’s government was also against the approval of a loan worth 90 billion euros, which was supposed to help Ukraine under attack.
A similar situation is not an exception, which, according to one of the representatives of the European Commission, whom the server quotes on the condition of anonymity, provokes discussions in the EU’s highest bodies about “lessons brought by the enlargement in 2004”. Just this year, eight states from the former Soviet bloc joined the Union. Including Hungary, Slovakia or the Czech Republic.
The accession agreement with Montenegro should thus reflect these “lessons”. As the mentioned commission representative added, the EU plans to include “long-term guarantees” in the contract. These should ensure the ability to react in the event that a Balkan state retreats from the principles of democracy and the rule of law on which the EU stands.
Restrictions on the right of veto
The current Cypriot Presidency of the Council of the EU is to start working on specific points of the accession agreement for Montenegro. It is supposed to assemble a working group within a few weeks that will draw up the contract.
However, it is not entirely clear what form the contract will take. “There are some ideas, but no one has put forward concrete points,” one European diplomat, who also spoke on condition of anonymity, told Politico.
However, debates are to take place, for example, on limiting the right of veto. Specifically, about its suspension in the event that Montenegro or other newly arrived states violate the basic values of the EU. For example, the principle of the rule of law.
In most cases, member states decide by qualified majority according to the current rules. However, there must be unanimous agreement on issues of foreign and security policy – that is why the approval of sanctions packages is so difficult.
However, the issue of canceling the right of veto is sensitive, even for Montenegro. As one of the country’s civil servants told the server, restricting voting rights would be a red line for Montenegro.
Another potential obstacle to possible expansion is the condition of the consent of all existing members of the Union. For example, France, however, is reluctant to expand in the current situation and is holding back the drafting of an agreement with Montenegro. The reason is said to be the presidential elections that await the Western European country next year.
