Winter is (not) coming. While bitcoin is currently trading 40% below its historic highsaround $75,000, analysts from the Bernstein firm estimate that we are only going through a phase of “short-term bear market”. In a note sent to their clients this Wednesday, February 4, 2026, the team led by Gautam Chhugani anticipates a decisive pivot by the middle of the year, paving the way for the cycle “the most consistent” of crypto history.
- Bernstein estimated that bitcoin is currently experiencing a short-term bear market, predicting a decisive pivot by mid-2026.
- Bernstein anticipated that bitcoin would bottom around $60,000, before strengthening for further upside, marking an unprecedented institutional cycle.
An expected low point around $60,000
Gautam Chhugani and the teams of Bernstein analyze the correction current by comparing it to the exceptional performance of gold. In 2025, central banks (notably in China and India) have massively accumulated yellow metalbringing its share in world reserves to 29 %. As a result, the market capitalization of Bitcoin now only represents 4 % that of gold, a two-year low.
However, this hollow relative is perceived as a opportunity. Bernstein thus anticipates that bitcoin should “hit rock bottom” around the area of 60 000 $ (the highs of the previous cycle) during the first half of 2026, before building a base solid for a new increase.
Bitcoin: The era of institutionalization and strategic reserve
Unlike the cycles precedents carried by individuals, the house’s experts emphasize that we are in a “institutional cycle”. Several factors also support this thesis of resilience:
- Success of ETFs: Spot Bitcoin ETFs now manage approximately 165 billion dollars of assets. Recent capital outflows remain minimal compared to the total amount held.
- Corporate cash flow: Players like Strategy continue to buy massively ($3.8 billion since the start of the year), even during downturns.
- US political support: The appointment of Kevin Warsh at the head of the Fed and discussions around a Bitcoin Strategic Reserve in the United States is changing the situation. Bernstein says the US government is unlikely to remain passive if the digital asset market continues to slide.
THE analysts finally note a structural change among bitcoin miners. Instead of sell their chips massively to survive (capitulation), many have diversified their revenues to data centers dedicated to artificial intelligence, thus reducing selling pressure on the network.
For Bernstein, the current weakness is therefore not the start of a prolonged crypto winter, but an end-of-cycle correction. The expected reversal in 2026 could transform bitcoin into a true sovereign reserve asset, breaking traditional patterns of four-year cycles to enter in a phase of unprecedented institutional and state recognition. And we really want to believe it!
