Cuba’s Stability: Fact-Checking Trump’s Claims

The Cuban government is up against the wall following the capture of Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro, its political and economic ally, while it is already facing a catastrophic economic situation.

Cuba is ready to falldeclared US President Donald Trump after the arrest of Nicolas Maduro.

If I lived in Havana and was part of the government, I would be worriedadded US Secretary of State Marco Rubio during a press conference at Mar-a-Lago.

Without the support of its ally, which provided it with low-cost oil in exchange for services such as those of doctors, professors and soldiers, the Castro regime will not last long, believes Cuban-born economist Sebastian Arcos, interim director of the Cuban Research Institute at Florida International University.

Cuba has clung to the Venezuelan economy since Hugo Chavez came to power 25 years agoobserves Mr. Arcos.

It is a parasitic state that feeds off the Venezuelan economy, just as it did the Soviet economy in the 1970s and 1980s.

Lately, the Maduro government has been supplying about 30,000 barrels of oil daily, which was already well below the island’s needs, says Ricardo Torres, a Cuban economist attached to theAmerican University de Washington.

Total electricity production in 2025 was 25% lower than in 2019he specifies.

Residents in many parts of the country are experiencing power outages that last more than 12 hours a day.

The cause: the lack of fuel, as well as the deterioration of the dilapidated electrical system, which suffers from frequent breakdowns.

Added to this is the decline of other sectors of the economy, notably agriculture.

Even sugar production is in free fall. While Cubans produced more than 6 million tons of sugar in 1958 and up to 8 million tons in the 1980s, they currently only produce 100,000 tons per year. Cuba even has to import sugar from Brazil.

The industry that drove the Cuban economy for 200 years has been destroyeds’insurge Sebastian Arcos.

Tourism, Cuba’s third largest source of foreign exchange, is also declining. There were fewer than 2 million tourists in 2025, compared to 4.6 million in 2018.

Even before the fall of the Venezuelan president, the Cuban situation was already very difficult, Mr. Torres recalls.

While Cubans have experienced other difficult times, particularly during the infamous special period 1990s, after the dismantling of theUSSRthis time, it’s really worsethinks this professor, many of whose family members are still in Cuba.

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Those with money can buy groceries at high prices in stores in big cities, but most Cubans cannot afford them, Torres said. The average salary of a public sector employee is $6,000 CUP [345 $ CA] per month, while a tray of 30 eggs costs $2000 CUP [115 $ CA]he says by way of illustration.

In addition, the supply booklet that allowed Cubans to obtain basic foods for free no longer provides practically anything. Public services, such as medicine and education, which were the pride of the island’s residents, have also deteriorated.

It is a storm that hits a country already ravaged by a hurricane while its resilience is much less than in the past.

What will the regime do?

If Cuba no longer receives oil from Venezuela, the regime will lose not only its main source of fuel but also an important influx of foreign currency, underlines Sebastian Arcos.

The Cuban government does not use all the oil it gets from Venezuela: it exports some of it and receives foreign exchange that allows it to buy medicine and food on international markets, Mr. Arcos explains.

In addition to losing this windfall, he would suffer a third blow, a psychological one, if the Chavista government collapsed, he says.

The island would have oil reserves for another 45 days. If Venezuelan oil deliveries to Cuba are suspended today, Cuba will be permanently turned off by the end of Februarybelieves Mr. Arcos.

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In this context, will President Miguel Diaz-Canel repress a possible protest movement as he did in 2021, when thousands of Cubans took to the streets demanding the end of the dictatorship?

It could be, the researcher believes, a moment Tiananmen for the government, which will have to decide whether to crush the protesters, as the Chinese army did in 1989.

Could China and Russia replace Venezuela?

The Chinese have money and the Russians have oil, but they have nothing to gain from a partnership with Cuba, Mr. Arcos believes.

The Chinese will not make this bethe thinks. By investing all over the world, they promote their ideology, but what they want first and foremost is to do profitable business.

China’s gamble has never been purely ideological, like that of the Soviet Union during the Cold War. If the numbers don’t add up, there’s no businessconcludes Mr. Arcos.

Beijing has not made major investments or provided loans to Cuba, he notes.

The Chinese and Russians are aware that the days of the Cuban regime are numbered. They are therefore not willing to support it or make large capital investments. It would be wasted money.

They know well that, sooner or later, Cuba will return to the American orbit, as before the 1959 revolution.

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Ricardo Torres also believes that the Chinese have other priorities than supporting a sclerotic regime. On several occasions, they have expressed their dissatisfaction with the immobility of the Cuban government, reluctant to reform its economic system to open it to the market.

It is convenient for them to have an ally in Cuba, an island located some 150 kilometers from the coast of Florida, but not at the cost of supporting an economy at arm’s length. which doesn’t workpoints out the researcher.

We must change a system that has been in place for six decades; it is no longer just a system, it is downright a cultureconcludes Mr. Torres.

A lifeline?

Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum acknowledged Wednesday that Mexico is now becoming a major supplier of oil to Cuba while ensuring that it will not send no more oil and thatthere is no special delivery.

She added that deliveries are made under contracts or on behalf of humanitarian aidwithout providing concrete data on the number of barrels exported.

According to data obtained by theAssociated Press near the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) of the United States, Mexico supplied some 19,000 barrels of oil daily to Cuba between January and September 2025.

Mexico has always condemned the American embargo on the island and has stepped up fuel deliveries during the worst crises.

With information from Agence France-Presse and Associated Press