According to some indicators, such as the one-year moving average, Bitcoin may already be in a bear market for two months, says the head of research at CryptoQuant.
During an episode of the Milk Road Show on Thursday, CryptoQuant’s Julio Moreno claims that most of the indicators he uses for the bull score index turned bearish in early November and have not yet recovered.
The index measures market conditions using indicators such as network activity, investor profitability, Bitcoin demand and liquidity, and ranges from 0 to 100.
“For me the ultimate confirmation is a technical indicator, which is the price falling below its one-year moving average – this is the technical indicator that, in my opinion, confirms that trend.”
The one-year moving average is the average price of an asset over 12 months and is used to show long-term trends.
The price of Bitcoin (BTC) started 2025 at around $93,000 and peaked at $126,080 in October, before ending the year below its starting value, crypto data aggregator CoinGecko reported.
If Bitcoin were to find itself in a bear market, it would run counter to many analyst predictions that see 2026 as a year of growth for Bitcoin.
Bitcoin low could be between $56,000 and $60,000
Previous cryptocurrency bear markets have seen significant declines across the industry, and it can take years for prices to recover.
Bitcoin trades around $88,543 on Friday; However, Moreno predicts that over the next year the bear market bottom is likely to be between $56,000 and $60,000, based on Bitcoin’s realized price and past performance.
“Historically, what has happened in previous bear markets is that the price has dropped to what’s called the realized price, which is basically the average price at which Bitcoin holders purchased their Bitcoins”explains Moreno.
“It deviates a lot to the upside in the bull market and then when there is a bear market, that should be, I would say perhaps, the baseline expectation for a price bottom during a bear market”he added.
This time the bear market decline is less intense
A drop from Bitcoin’s all-time high of $56,000 represents a decline of around 55%, which Moreno said could be seen as a positive given that it had previously been much higher.
“If you want to look on the bright side, from the all-time high, the drop is not as big as previous bear markets where we had 70% or 80% drops. It will only be a 55% drop from the all-time high.”he stated.
At the same time, Moreno argues that this bear market is already more stable because there have been no high-profile crashes related to cryptocurrencies.
During the 2022 bear market, the Terra ecosystem collapsed in May, followed by Celsius Network in June and FTX in November, sending shockwaves throughout the industry.
There are also large institutional players steadily accumulating cryptocurrencies, a larger pool of traders and investors willing to enter the market, and more reputable companies and projects in the sector.
“Going back to demand, now there are other types of traders who are buying more periodically. In previous bear markets, demand was essentially contracting. I would say, structurally, we now have more institutional or ETF traders who are not selling, and there is some buying there as well.”