According to outgoing chairman Petr Fiala, Kuba decided not to promote his vision within the ODS and to follow a different path. The chairman of the parliamentary club, Marek Benda, spoke similarly about Cuba. “He decided to go on his own. It is his right, but I think it will not harm the ODS in any way,” Benda said on Thursday. However, according to experts, the situation is not so idyllic.
“In my opinion, it will definitely hurt the civil democrats, especially if Cuba really has national ambitions after he succeeds in launching the project in southern Bohemia,” said political scientist Lukáš Jelínek, adding: “We will be able to say more about the extent of the damage after the ODS congress in January. I can imagine that some of the delegates or members will leave it unsatisfied.”
Fiala will no longer run for chairman, so far the favorite for leader is Martin Kupka, vice-chairman of the party and outgoing Minister of Transport, who has already announced his candidacy. “Members may feel that the ODS has changed very little after the lost elections. They may then go for someone who they consider to be a more prominent leader than Kupka,” Jelínek outlined a possible development.
Kuba was already followed by a number of politicians who announced the end of the ODS. Among them is, for example, the mayor of České Budějovice Dagmar Škodová Parmová and her deputy Petr Maroš, the former first governor of South Bohemia Jan Zahradník, who was in the ODS since 1991, or the governor’s deputies Tomáš Hajdušek and Lucie Kozlová. Senator and member of the ODS South Bohemian Regional Council Zbyněk Sýkora is thinking of the same step.
“I don’t envy the civic democrats the municipal elections next year, as far as southern Bohemia is concerned. They will not look very good for them,” said Michal Malý, a political scientist from the Faculty of Social Sciences of Charles University. The elections to the councils of cities and municipalities will be in less than a year, and it can be expected that at least in the mentioned region, Cuba can score significantly.
“Our first goal is really the municipal elections. I think that in the south of Bohemia there are a number of politicians who will want to join the movement and strive for the position of mayor on its candidate list,” Kuba has already said.
“Even when it comes to regional elections, the ODS in the south of Bohemia probably won’t make it there for many years,” Malý added.
Record result
According to him, just look at the results of the last polls. While in this year’s parliamentary elections the Spolu coalition, i.e. ODS, TOP 09 and KDU-ČSL, won 23.6 percent of the votes in South Bohemia, the ODS itself under the leadership of Kuba achieved a record result of 47.51 percent of the votes in the regional elections a year earlier. Even in the victorious parliamentary elections in 2021, the coalition Together in the South of Bohemia had a smaller electoral gain, 29 percent.
However, Malý doubts whether Cuba will be able to launch a nationwide project. According to him, it can only remain with a strong regional movement, which will be successful, for example, in the senate elections.
Jelínek also has his doubts: “Martin Kuba says that politics should not be so stubborn that it should be based on agreement. This could mean that Kuba’s path will not be the extreme right, but a movement that will stand somewhere between ODS and ANO.”
Deputy and Deputy Speaker of the House of Representatives Patrik Nacher (ANO) has already written about Kuba’s new project: “I am sincerely curious about the new political project he is preparing and his vision. I believe that it could contribute to the gradual return of less conflictual politics.”
According to Jelínek, Kuba’s new project can be driven by success in next year’s municipal elections. Especially if the ambition is also to succeed in voting for the Chamber of Deputies. The lower house should be elected again in 2029.
