2025/2/21 13:23
（2/21 18:29 更新）
The Complex Dynamics of US, Russia, and Ukraine: Implications of Calm Relations
As the Ukrainian conflict reaches its third anniversary, the geopolitical landscape grows increasingly complex. A recent analysis by The Economist sheds light on the intricate dynamics involving the United States, Russia, and Ukraine, highlighting potential dangers for Ukraine if the United States pursues peace negotiations in a way critics argue may facilitate Russian interests.
Ukraine Excluded from Peace Talks
A notable development in these negotiations occurred on February 18, when US and Russian representatives met in Riyadh without including the Ukrainian government. Following the meeting, US President Donald Trump made comments that puzzled and perplexed the Kyiv leadership. He suggested that Ukraine “should not have started the war” and questioned the legitimacy of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky’s tenure without a re-election.
In response, Zelensky accused Trump of residing in a world dominated by fake news, to which Trump counter-argued that Zelensky was an “unelected dictator” and exhorted him to either back down or risk losing his country.
Shifts in Diplomatic Alliances
The Economist’s analysis points out a significant shift in US foreign policy, particularly concerning its relationship with Moscow. Trump’s decision to engage in direct consultations with Russian President Vladimir Putin on the Ukrainian conflict has alarmed Ukrainian political circles. A senior Ukrainian parliamentarian stated bluntly, “Kiev senses the door to Washington is shut, which should not be underestimated.”
Opposition MPs expressed concern, suggesting that an upcoming parliamentary vote might bring about a humiliating ceasefire agreement. The fear is that such a deal could be crafted under terms that undermine national interests, security guarantees, and unity.
Zelensky as a Pompous Target
Many Ukrainian elites suspect that Trump’s actions are motivated less by the desire for a fair and just peace than by a personal animosity towards Zelensky. One diplomat interviewed by The Economist commented that Trump’s disapproval dates back to before the election, driven by disdain for Zelensky’s unpredictability rather than any genuine political strategy.
The Consequences of Premature Ceasefires
The Economist warns that Trump’s approach will not resolve the conflict quickly. Instead, it underscores the likelihood of producing an agreement that Ukraine cannot accept. Zelensky has repeatedly stated his refusal to negotiate a ceasefire without adequate security guarantees and his rejection of agreements made behind his back.
Zelensky’s conditions for a sustainable cessation of hostilities include maintaining ties with Western military support, receiving ongoing arms and funding from the West, avoiding a “demilitarization” of Ukraine, and ensuring the deployment of international peacekeepers on Ukrainian soil.
The Absence of European Involvement
The exclusion of European Nations from Trump’s peace-making efforts has shifted the onus squarely onto Zelensky. However, Ukrainian insiders warn that the president is isolating himself rather than forming a broad coalition of support. There is a perception that no one within Zelensky’s inner circle is offering constructive criticism.
Popular Misgivings and Zelensky’s Ratings
Public sentiment towards Zelensky is at a nadir. According to The Economist’s internal polling data, a presidential poll would likely see opposition leader Valerii Zaluzhnyi, a former army chief and current ambassador to the United Kingdom, beating Zelensky with 65% of the vote against Zelensky’s 30%.
The Path Forward
Beyond the immediate challenge of finding a path to peace, Ukraine faces numerous long-term challenges. These include dealing with the physical and psychological toll the war has taken on its population, the loss of life, and the mass displacement of its citizens.
The presence of a three million-strong diaspora, with approximately one-third being under the age of 18, and the potential of an exodus continuing even after a peace agreement emphasizes the urgent need for robust and secure conditions in Ukraine.
The Real Danger
The Economist concludes that the most alarming scenario would be for Trump to align fully with Russia’s strategic objectives. Such an outcome could result in a ceasefire without sufficient security measures, a disputed election that undermines stability, internal political strife, and a wave of repatriation challenges.
Conclusion
As the Ukrainian conflict persistently grinds on, the decisions made by key international actors will have profound and lasting effects on Ukraine’s future. The scenario of a hasty, politically motivated ceasefire without adequate safeguards could exacerbate existing problems and set the stage for further instability.
The international community must continue to assert pressure for an inclusive and just peace. The well-being of Ukraine and its people hinges on a process that respects their sovereignty, security, and democratic values.
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