(Washington) Inflation was slightly rebounded last month in the United States according to an official index published on Friday, a result that does not flinch President Donald Trump: he wants the central bank to lower its rates.
In the first world economy, prices increased by 2.3 % over a year in May, according to the PCE index, published by the Commerce Department.
The increase was 2.2 % in the previous month (revised increased value, the index having first been announced as a smaller increase, by 2.1 %).
This revival surprised neither the analysts nor the federal reserve (Fed).
Its president Jerome Powell had said earlier this week, in front of the American parliamentarians, which he expected to see the PCE increase in this order of magnitude.
After reaching very high levels at the time of the COVVI-19 pandemic (with a peak around 7 % in the spring of 2022), inflation has so far reflected in the United States, with a few jerks.
On paper, it is now even close to the level desired by the Fed, which is 2 %.
However, most central experts and bankers believe that prices will not stay tightly to the customs duties set up by Donald Trump since his return to power in January.
The Fed officials consider that the PCE index should reach +3 % by the end of the year, according to the median of their updated forecasts last week.
In the meantime, the official data has derailed, bearing President Donald Trump to ensure that there is “no inflation” and to congratulate himself on denying the economic doxa.
“We did a great job on inflation,” he said on Friday, during an event at the White House.
The Head of State continues to call the Central Bank to lower its interest rates to stimulate the economy of the United States.
“I’m going to put someone [à la Fed] Who wants to lower rates, ”he said on Friday.
Jerome Powell’s mandate approaches his term, scheduled for May 2026. Mr. Trump once again denied him, calling him “stubborn donkey” and “stupid person”.
Morals a Berne
“Inflation remained moderate in May. There is hardly any generalized impact of customs duties on prices, ”said Heather Long, economist for Navy Federal Credit Union.
“Nevertheless, consumers closely monitor price increases and stand out from automotive dealerships for fear of having a shock in front of the prices displayed,” she added.
Imported car cars and spare parts were struck from a surcharge from the start of Donald Trump’s second term.
From the publication of Friday, analysts remember above all that consumer spending is withdrawn by 0.1 % of one month on the other. And that household revenues fell 0.4 %.
“We expect a more marked slowdown in the coming months as customs duties will weigh more on available income,” said Michael Pearce, of Oxford Economics.
The economist observes in particular “a clear weakening of expenses in non-essential services-travel and hotels-restaurant”, reflecting in particular the loss of foreign tourists.
“A person hinders the drop in the cost of living for families: President Trump,” said Democratic Senator Elizabeth Warren in a statement, denouncing his taxes on imports.
“Lodging is always more expensive, layoffs are increasing, available income decreases and consumers reduce their expenses, as they become more and more worried about the state of the economy,” also denounced the opponent.
A barometer on household morale, updated Friday by the University of Michigan, shows that it remained leaded in June, down 11 % compared to a year earlier.
