Trump’s Trade Strategy: A High-Stakes Gamble with China
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The Art of the Deal: Trump’s Negotiating Tactics
Former Trump administration trade advisor, Kate Calut Key Beach McLati, suggests that former President Donald Trump remains steadfast to secure a significant trade agreement with China, aiming to leave a lasting legacy.McLati,who previously served as a special advisor to the U.S.Trade Representative (USTR) and the White House national Economic Council (NEC), highlighted Trump’s distinctive negotiating style.
McLati characterized Trump’s approach as a relentless accumulation of pressure, a strategy she described as stacked, stacked, stacked and made a deal at once.
This tactic involves escalating tariffs and maintaining pressure until the other party is compelled to negotiate. This “chicken game” approach, as McLati calls it, has been a consistent feature of Trump’s dealings with china.
China’s Response: beyond Tariffs
Though, McLati suggests that China’s lack of immediate response to the escalating tariffs may have surprised Trump. Historically, China has been quick to engage in negotiations, even after the imposition of tariffs. The current situation, where china appears hesitant to negotiate under pressure, could lead to a shift in their strategy.
McLati predicts that China might explore alternative forms of economic coercion beyond tariffs. This could include actions such as listing U.S. companies on “untrusted organizations” lists or implementing boycotts against foreign businesses operating within China. Such measures could have a significant impact on U.S. businesses and the overall trade relationship.
It is indeed a case of posting a US company on a list of untrusted organizations. boycott measures against foreign companies in China can be fatal.
The End Game: A Desire for a Deal
Despite the aggressive tactics, McLati believes that Trump’s ultimate goal is to reach a trade agreement. She emphasized that Trump is not seeking to fundamentally alter china but rather to achieve a favorable trade balance for the United States. This aligns with Trump’s past actions, such as the agricultural export deal made towards the end of his administration, wich, while not addressing all unfair trade practices, demonstrated his willingness to make deals.
While the path forward remains uncertain, McLati remains optimistic that Trump will ultimately pursue an agreement. She acknowledged his tendency to change his mind but emphasized his unwavering pursuit of victory. This suggests that Trump will likely continue to employ high-pressure tactics to achieve his desired outcome.
It’s hard to determine which direction to go, but I believe that Trump will pursue an agreement. He is quiet frequently enough changing his mind,but he is the one who pursues a definite victory.
Uncertainty and Market Reaction
McLati also commented on the recent announcement regarding U.S. CEOs, stating that she knew it was one of the options being considered. This highlights the level of uncertainty surrounding trade policy decisions and their potential impact on businesses.
The ongoing trade tensions between the U.S. and China continue to create volatility in global markets. According to a recent report by the International Monetary Fund (IMF), global trade growth is projected to slow to 2.5% this year, in part due to the uncertainty surrounding trade policies. The outcome of the U.S.-china trade negotiations will have significant implications for the global economy.