Oil Market Report - November 2026

The International Energy Agency said on Thursday that world oil supply has moved into a surplus as shipments from the Gulf recover, marking the first time the market has been in oversupply since the start of the Iran war. The Financial Times reported that JPMorgan estimates global supply exceeded demand by 1.4 million barrels per day in October, easing the tightness that had supported prices in recent months.

The surplus comes as Middle Eastern exports rebound and Latin American supply increases. The Wall Street Journal noted that the IEA's monthly report highlighted the recovery in Gulf shipments as the primary driver of the shift. Reuters added that the agency expects the surplus to persist into 2027 if OPEC+ does not deepen production cuts.

Russian crude production has also rebounded, a development CNBC linked to a diesel deal involving U.S. President-elect Donald Trump. The outlet reported that the IEA said Russian output recovered in October after the agreement eased restrictions on diesel exports, contributing to the global supply increase.

Despite the return to surplus, prices remain elevated. Axios reported that while supplies have bounced back, crude prices are still high, reflecting ongoing geopolitical risk premiums and uncertainty over OPEC+ policy. The Guardian noted that the IEA warned the market balance remains fragile due to the conflict in the Middle East and the uncertain trajectory of demand growth.

OPEC+ is scheduled to meet in early December to decide on production targets for 2025. The Financial Times said key figures including OPEC Secretary General Haitham Al Ghais and Saudi Energy Minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman could influence whether the group extends or deepens cuts to support prices. The group has been withholding more than 5 million barrels per day of output under existing agreements.

The IEA left its 2026 demand growth forecast unchanged at 900,000 barrels per day but trimmed its 2027 estimate to 1 million barrels per day from 1.1 million, according to Reuters. The agency cited weaker-than-expected economic data from China and the accelerating adoption of electric vehicles as reasons for the downward revision.

Market participants are now watching for the OPEC+ decision and further developments in the Middle East. The Wall Street Journal said traders are also monitoring U.S. inventory data and the implementation of new sanctions on Iranian and Russian oil, which could tighten supply again if enforced strictly.