This Shipping Lane Is Now the World’s Deadliest. It Isn’t Hormuz.

Lloyd's List data shows Black Sea hull war premiums have climbed as high as 20%, roughly four times tanker war levels and well above Second World War benchmarks, while Gulf rates have eased to 7–9% with some cover written as low as 5%. A vessel insured for US$50 million would, at 20%, attract about US$10 million in additional premium for one exposure, making many voyages uneconomic. At the turn of the year the market was still measured in fractions of a percent, with war cover for Black Sea port calls at about 1% of hull value in January, up from 0.6–0.8% in late December.

The Joint War Committee issued circular JWLA-035 on 16 September, extending the listed area across most of the Black Sea while leaving out only the territorial waters of Turkey, Bulgaria, Romania and Georgia. Over 24 days in October, drones hit nine cargo ships and tankers near the Bulgarian and Romanian coasts, and at least 30 seafarers were confirmed dead or reported missing. The Khoryv, a Comoros-flagged carrier, capsized and sank about 13 nautical miles off Constanta on 23 October. Maritime security firm Ambrey counts 696 security events in the Western Black Sea, around 537 of them in Ukrainian waters.

An October submission to the International Maritime Organization was backed by 35 governments and the European Commission, the UK among them, alongside Black Sea states Bulgaria, Romania and Georgia. NATO has said it will deploy maritime patrol aircraft, radars and drones to strengthen its eastern flank in the Black Sea. Two analysts told Lloyd's List they had been approached about potential charterparty disputes, with owners seeking to refuse charterers' orders to Romanian and Bulgarian ports, and Ambrey reports some masters and crew are now reluctant to sail to either country.

Commercial fallout is already large. Ukraine suspended its Black Sea port operations in late July, rerouting cargo via Danube ports and Romania's Sulina Canal. Russian grain exports through the Black Sea and Sea of Azov dropped to 0.3 million tonnes in September, from 4.74 million tonnes a year before. In the Gulf, attacks haven't stopped — UK Maritime Trade Operations reports show more than 20 vessels, mostly tankers, attacked in Hormuz, the Persian Gulf and the Gulf of Oman since 1 October — but rates have fallen due to new capacity and competition on terms.

Beazley put together a US$1 billion marine war consortium at Lloyd's in April, split equally between hull war and cargo war, and a further Lloyd's facility announced in June offers up to US$200 million each for hull and P&I risks plus US$200 million of cargo capacity for Hormuz transits. Some underwriters have introduced no-claims bonuses for Hormuz voyages, reportedly returning as much as half the premium to owners whose ships get through without incident. Marsh Re's Global Specialties 2026 Market Update shows Middle East losses in the war, terrorism and political violence class are above US$2 billion against annual gross premiums of roughly US$2.5 billion, which could make this the class's first loss-making year.

For brokers placing shipping and commodity business, Black Sea cover now moves on a daily cycle. Calls at Russian or Ukrainian ports require additional war cover, normally written for seven days, with terms now reviewed every 24 hours. London has decided the Gulf is a risk it can price and compete for; in the Black Sea, it's the owners who are now deciding whether any price is worth paying.