Ethiopia and Tigray accuse each of launching offensives, fuelling fears of new war

The fragile peace in northern Ethiopia has broken down following fresh mobilization by the Tigray region against the Ethiopian central government. Conflict monitoring by ACLED recorded the Tigray People's Liberation Front taking the helm of a new alliance before moving forces toward critical sites. This military mobilization abruptly disrupted the area's delicate balance, prompting rapid warnings that northern Ethiopia was entering an alarming new phase of armed conflict. Rebel forces subsequently launched a major offensive against the Ethiopian army, igniting fierce clashes across northern territories. The sudden resurgence of hostilities dealt a decisive blow to the diplomatic framework established two years prior, effectively shattering the 2022 peace agreement that had formally concluded the previous war.

Accounts from The Guardian and the Financial Times quickly warned that the rebel offensive pushed Ethiopia directly to the brink of civil war. Ethiopia's military addressed the renewed clashes through its first public statement regarding the northern front, stating that the army had successfully repelled TPLF attacks. However, the military's pushback did not contain the violence. Clashes escalated rapidly along multiple axes, with armed confrontations swiftly widening across wider regions of Ethiopia and compounding fears that fighting could spread well beyond initial focal points. The widening combat has effectively undone the relative calm achieved under the 2022 accord.

Analyses from The Economist and DW underscore that Ethiopia now faces the immediate risk of descending into another prolonged civil war. With the formal peace pact shattered by active battle lines and military maneuvers, questions have mounted across diplomatic circles regarding where the conflict goes from here and how broad the new war may become. For local populations, the immediate reality is marked by acute panic and preparation for extended siege conditions. Reuters reported that residents throughout the Tigray region have begun stocking up on food and essential provisions, driven by immediate fears that full-scale war has returned to their doorsteps. With armed forces mobilized, critical sites targeted, and defensive engagements underway, northern Ethiopia stands once again engulfed in open hostility.