The Trump administration claims oil is flowing normally again. There’s just one problem

The Trump administration has declared that oil flows in the Gulf have returned to 15 million barrels a day. This follows recent disruptions, with the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) projecting that some Middle East oil output will remain shut through next year. The EIA also anticipates that oil supply disruptions caused by the Iran war will last through 2027.

The EIA's Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO) forecasts US oil production to average 13.83 million barrels per day in August, slightly up from 13.82 million in July, and to average 13.77 million barrels per day in September. The Trump administration's claim of normal oil flows in the Gulf contrasts with the ongoing disruptions in the Middle East. The prolonged disruptions in the Middle East will affect global oil supply and prices.

The EIA's projections indicate that the oil market will face continued uncertainty. The next steps involve monitoring the actual oil production levels and the impact of the disruptions on global oil supply and prices.