A recent survey of 317 family offices indicates that ultra-wealthy families view a global trade war as the most notable threat to their investments over the next year. The survey, conducted by an autonomous research firm, took place online between January 22 and April 4, with follow-up interviews between April 9 and May 7.

Tobias Vogel, CEO of UBS Europe SE, notes that risks such as a global recession, a worldwide debt crisis, or the escalation of geopolitical conflicts are also primary concerns for the next five years. „Looking ahead to the next five years, follow-up risks such as a global recession, a worldwide debt crisis, or the escalation of geopolitical conflicts are also in focus”, says Tobias Vogel, CEO of UBS Europe SE. „In this uncertain environment, active management is gaining importance: 61% of family offices in Europe now manage their equity positions actively – a clear trend toward risk diversification through versatility. Hedge funds and targeted allocations in precious metals complement this strategic approach.”

investment focus remains largely on north america (53%,up from 50% the previous year) and Western Europe (26%,unchanged). The Asia-Pacific region (excluding China and Hong Kong), and china (including Hong Kong), each account for only 7% of investments. US family offices invest predominantly (86%) in their home region,up from 74% in 2020. european family offices show a home bias of 44%, with the Middle East receiving 21% of assets.

Long-Term Investment Strategies

Maximilian Kunkel, Chief Investment Strategist for UBS Germany, observes that family offices are maintaining their long-term strategies despite current geopolitical and economic conditions. „Despite geopolitical and economic turbulence, family offices remain committed to their long-term strategies. They consistently pursue diversification, return optimisation, and targeted investments in structural growth themes such as generative AI, healthcare, and electrification”, notes Maximilian Kunkel, Chief Investment strategist for UBS Germany. „At the same time, a noticeable shift in portfolio structure is evident.Cash holdings are declining, while equity allocations – especially in established markets like the US and Europe – are on the rise. Private debt is also gaining meaning, as are bond investments.”

Some family offices are increasing their investments in stocks and bonds from industrialized countries, seeking capital growth and returns in liquid markets amid volatility. Investments in generative AI, energy, and commodity stocks are particularly popular.

„Despite geopolitical and economic turbulence, family offices remain committed to their long-term strategies.”

Equity Allocations on the Rise

In 2024, global equity allocations to developed markets averaged 26%, with Europe at 27%. Approximately 46% of surveyed family offices anticipate increasing their equity holdings in developed markets over the next five years. A similar trend is expected for fixed income investments, with 23% planning to increase allocations in developed markets.

While family offices slightly decreased their private equity exposure, overall allocations to private markets remained relatively high in 2024 at 21% globally (27% in europe). For 2025,those planning changes expect to reduce that share to an average of 18%,citing weaker capital markets,fewer acquisition opportunities,and higher interest rates increasing financing costs.

Succession Planning Lags

Only 53% of the surveyed family offices have established wealth succession plans for family members. Among those without such plans, 29% believe there is sufficient time, 21% have not yet decided how to divide their wealth, and 18% cite a lack of time to discuss the issue.

For families with succession arrangements, 64% identified tax-efficient wealth transfer as the primary challenge, while nearly half (46%) cited creating the appropriate legal structure for wealth transfer as the most pressing issue.