Monday, August 3, 2020

The dollar advanced almost $ 1 and exceeded $ 96.60 in the week

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In the Single Market and Free of Exchange (MULC), the currency rose 42 cents to $ 70.64 in the week after climbing six cents on this last wheel, coinciding with the Central Bank’s selling stance for today.

This Friday It was a reduced day in New York for the July 4 holiday, a factor that can have an impact at the local level to generate another wheel with low turnover.

In the first three days, the daily average volume in the foreign exchange market was just above US $ 170 million, by far the lowest in several years.

The economist Gustavo Ber pointed out that “Concerns about the sustainability of said strategy grow due to the strong monetary issue required by the growing fiscal deficit, and that it must be sterilized by Leliqs, at the risk that said excess weight will generate renewed pressure in the post pandemic. “

The US currency returned to operate with a certain tone demanded in another day of low turnover. Prices were coupled from the beginning with the official level of regulation and remained there until the end of the day.

The maximums, recorded at $ 70.64, again coincided with the selling position set to date by the Central Bank, and were held in that range, without being modified throughout the entire session.

The Authorized demand was again active, with little response from the private side, a circumstance that required official sales (operators estimate that it was $ 25 million) to meet the needs of banks and companies.

The daily average of operations has settled since the beginning of the month below US $ 200 million, something that has not been repeated for several years in the domestic dollar market.

“The policy of daily adjustment of wholesale dollar prices remains unchanged and everything seems to indicate that it will not undergo significant changes in the rest of the month that has just begun,” said analyst Gustavo Quintana.

Yesterday, the Gross International Reserves fell by US $ 19 million to close at US $ 43,204 million.

Stock dollar

In a market with few operations for a holiday in the US, the Dollar Counted with Liquidation -which arises from the purchase of bonds or shares on the local stock exchange-, fell 0.9% to $ 108.74, after having scored two consecutive strong increases after sinking 8.2% ($ 9.28) in June. Consequently, the spread with the wholesaler stands at 53.9%.

In the same way, the MEP dollar, also called the stock market dollar, -similar to that of the CCL but within the country- loses 2.2% to $ 104.87 and short streak of two consecutive increases after accumulating a drop of 6.7% ($ 7.18) in the sixth month of the year, a period in which it touched its lowest value since April ($ 100.53). Thus, the gap with the currency listed on the MULC stands at 48.5%.

Yesterday, the implicit exchange rates registered strong increases as investors assessed that the CCL and the MEP are at an entry price and took the opportunity to continue dollarizing their portfolios with the aim of facing the economic uncertainty caused by the pandemic.

Market sources told Ambit that it is “only a rearrangement” after deflating strongly in recent times, as some operators “begin to perceive it cheap in relation to the solidarity dollar, as it is very close, more considering the current monetary dynamics.”

The economist Gustavo Ber assured that the increase would also be related to “rumors about the modification of the ‘parking'”, especially after having deflated in recent times and even getting very close to the solidarity dollar.

The implicit exchange rates fell sharply in the sixth month of the year, due to the growing expectation for a debt agreement, and the entry into force of a series of measures by the National Securities Commission (CNV), which deepened the obstacles to the operation that allows to make dollars through businesses with assets. In addition, specialists point out that greater bets on the assets in pesos also influenced, taking advantage of the “weakness” of the stock market dollars.

Blue Dollar

After two consecutive hikes, the blue dollar closed lower this Friday, when it yielded $ 2 to $ 127 for sale, according to a survey by √Āmbito en cuevas del Microcentro. In this way, during the week it accumulated the same setback as on the day, since a week ago it had ended at $ 129. In turn, the gap with the wholesale dollar pierced 80%, standing at 79.8%, after reaching a weekly peak of 83.2% last Monday.

On Thursday the ticket increased $ 1 and on Wednesday another $ 2 after having registered its worst daily fall ($ 3) in almost a month on Tuesday before a greater need for pesos at the end of the month, at a time when companies -who can- have to face the payment of the Christmas bonus, commented market sources.

Beyond that since the beginning of the mandatory quarantine decreed by the Government, the parallel ticket accumulates a jump of $ 41.50 (on March 20 it had closed at $ 85.50), last June the price of the blue showed greater stability, operating in a range between $ 124 and $ 129, within the framework of greater controls in the official markets.

Thus, the informal ticket registered a rise of 0.8% ($ 1) in June, while in the first half it accumulated a jump of 60.5%.

Future Dollar

In the Rofex futures market, $ 126 million were traded. The terms again with lows, falls close to 0.4% for November and December. July ended with a rate of 33.40% and August at 36.69% TNA. End of the year with a closing at 86.20% (44.42% TNA). The positions of open contracts totaled a sum of US $ 3,944 million.

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