After two weeks of extreme tension in the Eastern Mediterranean, we are entering a week when the pulse will normalize.
The last Navtex announced for the Oruç Reis ship, which was conducting seismic surveys in the region, expired on September 12, the previous day. Turkey, instead of the term to extend the period gave Navtex break diplomatic speak in the eastern Mediterranean; Oruç Reis anchored off Antalya Port.
I spoke with some people from Ankara yesterday to understand what lies behind this decision. As far as I understand, Oruç Reis’ anchoring in Antalya Port is a result of the mediation efforts of the German Chancellor Merkel. President Erdogan, in this time of giving support to Merkel’s attempt unrest issuing the table and distributes party wanted to show once again that Turkey.
More importantly, it isolated Macron. This process is important because the pull side of Merkel’s Turkey established close contact with Germany, Spain, Italy, Romania, Poland and Hungary also be the occasion for countries like Turkey to understand the thesis.
In this process, no one openly supports Macron except Greece, Cyprus and Austria.
After Erdogan’s last step, Merkel was expected to speak to Macron and say “Look, Erdogan favors diplomacy, calm down and quit this anti-campaign.”
Macroname in France on 10 September 7th place after the summit with the EU MED 7 “Pure’re not, but we want to re-establish dialogue with Turkey in good faith” in this process lies behind the particular well.
Germany as well as Spain’s support for the termination of significant loneliness of Turkey in the eastern Mediterranean.
It is probably no coincidence that Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez called Erdogan before going to Corsica Island for MED 7. Some sources in Ankara reported that Sanchez told Erdogan at that meeting, “We will not support a decision against you.”
So soon Erdogan’s loneliness may end and Macron’s loneliness may begin in the Eastern Mediterranean.
Of course, it’s not just a matter of Macron.
The diplomatic process is walking on a sensitive rope. He raises areas of Turkey for talks with Greek President Katerina Sakelaropulu Meis Island to do a 2-day visit to Ankara by many unmet pleasant. The visits of the Minister of National Defense Hulusi Akar to Kaş opposite Meis and to Nicosia, the capital of the TRNC, were the steps taken in return. Obviously, Ankara to Europe “This time, the table will not be responsible if Turkey dispersed “gives the message.
Turkey tells the one hand irrelevance of their thesis the other hand, Greece’s maximalist demands. If the door to negotiations if a new scheme that results in data from Turkey’s eastern Mediterranean may be spaced.
Because it is in the back of Merkel’s mediation efforts in Turkey lies in the intention of making a new Eastern Mediterranean energy conference. The President of the European Union Commission, Charles Michel, openly voiced the idea of holding a multilateral conference last week to discuss the problems in the Mediterranean.
Created in January 2020, to the exclusion of Turkey “Eastern Mediterranean Gas Forum“Unlike the occasion of Turkey may also be entered in a process that includes the formation of a new equilibrium in the eastern Mediterranean.
Let’s add also that meanwhile the US South of Cyprus to the arms embargo lifting and US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo is seen as only one element of destabilizing his visit to the GASC without Turkey, and Ankara’s discomfort in Washington message.