In Washington, President Donald Trump’s aggressive stance in his second term may rely heavily on Supreme Court decisions, especially considering he has appointed three new justices. However, even with a conservative majority, the court might not support all his initiatives, given past unanimous and split decisions.

Trump’s Judicial Agenda: Rocky Terrain Awaited

The Supreme Court bolstered Trump in his re-election campaign last year by ensuring he faced no prosecution for a D.C. criminal case and granting immunity for official actions, including those directly tied to the Capitol riot. Yet, Trump’s terms saw dramatic victories and setbacks.

Michael Waldman, president of New York University’s Brennan Center, doubts that constitutional principles will escape scrutiny. “Some of Trump’s actions are unconstitutional, but I hope the court stands up,” Waldman said, adding, “Others aim to strengthen presidential power, making me wary.”

Lawsuits and Legal Issues Piling Up

Currently, lower courts have blocked several of Trump’s actions, including pausing birthright citizenship, freezing government grants and loans, and federal worker buyouts. Other controversial policies under scrutiny involve transgender individuals, asylum seekers, USAID operations, and access to sensitive data by Elon Musk and his team.

The Travel Ban Success and Failures

Trump succeeded in implementing a travel ban with a 5-4 Supreme Court ruling after courts initially blocked previous iterations. However, the same five conservatives supported him in terminating the Consumer Finance Protection Bureau’s head, enabling billions in Pentagon funds for a border wall, despite ongoing lawsuits.

Conversely, Chief Justice John Roberts aligned with four liberal justices to stop Trump from ending DACA and including a citizenship question on the 2020 census. Roberts confronted Trump publicly for attacking a judge who blocked his asylum policy, branding him an “Obama judge.”

Court Dynamics Shifted by Ginsburg’s Death

Since Ruth Bader Ginsburg’s untimely death in September 2020, Trump added Amy Coney Barrett to the bench, increasing conservative justices to three. This shift may influence Supreme Court decisions, favoring Trump’s agenda.

Key Legal Battles Predicted

Birthright citizenship appears likely as the first major case, with Trump’s directive awaiting appeals. While some scholars back ending birthright citizenship for non-US parents, most legal minds anticipate the Supreme Court’s rejection.

Jonathan Adler, a conservative law professor at Case Western Reserve University, expressed doubt about Trump’s chances. “I’m skeptical any votes would support the executive order,” Adler stated.

Federal Spending under Scrutiny

Trump’s efforts to freeze federal spending and shut down USAID could also face resistance, even before a conservative Supreme Court. Partial reductions might be more feasible.

The Firepower of Presidential Firing

Trump’s termination of National Labor Relations Board member Gynne A. Wilcox and Equal Employment Opportunity Commission members Charlotte Burrows and Jocelyn Samuels, all Democrats, presents a stronger case. Their lawsuits could challenge an established Supreme Court precedent.

“The case called Humphrey’s Executor held that President Roosevelt couldn’t dismiss FTC members arbitrarily,” stated Michael Moreland, a Villanova professor. “However, conservative justices believe the Constitution delegates all execution power to the president, accountable to all Americans.”

“In recent rulings, Chief Justice Roberts upheld Humphrey’s Executor but weakened it, leaving the door open for further challenges,” Moreland noted.